The Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas (KMP) is not expecting a bumper crop of palay for the first semester as a result of the reduction in the use of petrochemical-based fertilizer and the failure to rehabilitate irrigation systems nationwide.

Aside from KMP, Anakpawis Rep. Rafael Mariano is also biting on the claim made by Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap that rice production will hit 7.4 million metric tons for the first half.

Yap also projects total rice production to expand by 4.4 percent from the previous year's 16.82 MMT.

Mariano said the DA has forecast the rise in production on the basis of the claimed expansion of areas planted to palay but has failed to recognize the conditions on the ground as more farmers shift to the use of organic fertilizer, the absence of irrigation facilities and even the low price of palay, which ranges from P13 to P16 a kilo.

The Anakpawis lawmaker noted as well that the optimism of the DA comes in the wake of the plan of Vietnamese rice exporters to delay the shipments of imported grain until the second semester, in which case the National Food Authority (NFA) will be compelled to buy more local grain.

Mariano, who also heads the KMP, explained that government had been buying enormous quantities of rice from Vietnam, and suspects that the plan of the NFA to purchase a million metric tons of local grain is meant to cushion the failure of Vietnamese traders to bring in rice when it is most needed.

On the other hand, Philippine Confederation of Grains Associations (Philcongrains) president Herculano “Joji” Co stressed the delay in the shipments of rice from Vietnam may have been prompted by the large inventory of NFA rice.

'The warehouses may still be full of stocks, and bringing in more grain would pose a problem for NFA,” he surmised.

KMP noted that prices of conventional fertilizers are bound to rise as oil inventories in the US and China, as well as other developed countries, are used up before the first half ends.

As a result of the volatility of the prices of chemical fertilizers, more and more farmers have resorted to producing their own fertilizers or soil inoculants using burnt rice hills mixed with animal manure, as what is being done in Central Luzon and in Cagayan Valley.

Jaime Tadeo, who speaks on behalf of Go Organic! Philippines, says that in the long run, organic fertilizers would save the day for farmers.

He explained that farmers could use rice straws, rice hulls, and other biodegradable waste, along with animal manure, and treat them with effective microorganisms (EM) to make organic fertilizer.

Tadeo, along with lawyer Antonio Moncupa, says rice production would increase with organic fertilizers and farmers should abandon chemical fertilizers altogether in the long haul.