NORTH Korea’s test on 25 May of a nuclear weapon, five times more powerful than its first-ever nukebomb it exploded last October 2006, threw the UN, US, Japan, China and other countries – not the least South Korea – into a state of high alert and tension.

The destructive effect of the 2006 nuke bomb was estimated at one kiloton, the equivalent of 1,000 tons of TNT. For comparison, the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in August 1945 rated 13 kilotons.

The Associated Press reported (27 May): “The United Nations swiftly condemned North Korea for its test of a powerful nuclear bomb and South Korea announced it would join a US-led initiative to intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction. The UN Security Council said it was a ‘clear violation’ of the 2006 resolution banning North Korea from conducting nuclear development, and that it would work immediately to take stronger measures.”

US to defend ASIA

Last May 30 in Singapore, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned at an annual summit of defense/security ministers that a nuclear-armed North Korea would be unacceptable, while China called for calm, even as Japan and Russia expressed justifiable alarm.

Gates said NoKor’s defiant acts could spark an arms race with serious consequences for Asia. “Our goal is complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, and we will not accept North Korea as a nuclear state,” Gates declared. Reiterating the US commitment to defend Asian partners from attack, he added any transfer of nuclear weapons/materiel to other countries or “nonstate entities” would be a grave threat to the US and its allies.

Beyond the strong language condemning Pyongyang’s latest war-mongering, the US is pursuing serious strategic initiatives with its able Secretary Gates in the lead.

Sec. Gates in the Philippines

As a streetwise, career intelligence operative, who became CIA chief under President H.W. Bush, Bob Gates is well-versed in Philippine affairs and the political dynamics of Asia. A quickie visitor to Manila last week to exchange views with his Philippine counterpart, SND Gibo Teodoro, Gates clearly reaffirmed US commitments in fighting or deterring international terrorism whether of the nuclear or al-Qaeda kind. In a joint presscon with Teodoro at Camp Aguinaldo, Gates revealed North Korea was preparing to test a long-range missile with a probable range of 4,800 kilometers which would put Alaska within reach.

Coming from the timely security summit in Singapore, Gates pushed for united action among China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the US to “punish” North Korea, and work out alternative measures in case cooperative efforts as called for by the UN fell short. Meantime, a team headed by veteran Ambassador Stephen Bosworth (former US envoy to the Philippines), is preparing to engage China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea in fresh diplomacy to help defuse tensions, and revive the “Six-Party Talks.”

South Korea beleaguered

At the epicenter of the threats and tensions is Seoul and its surrounding industrial, financial, and transportation hubs – which are within bombardment range of 12,000 hostile artillery pieces. On top of the intensified challenges from the North are three crisis situations converging on beleaguered South Korea:

(1) Economic recession that plunged the country, the world’s 15th largest exporter, into its deepest decline since the Korean War.
(2) Abrogation by North Korea of the July 1953 armistice which guaranteed an effective ceasefire between the Communist forces and UN allies; and,
(3) Anticipated massive backlash against incumbent President Lee Myung-bak’s government due to the suicide of his predecessor Roh Moo-hyun which generated an outpouring of national grief during Roh’s funeral.

Nationwide mourning for President Rh

Ex-President Roh’s funeral was attended by millions of South Koreans who appreciated him as “leader for the people and favorite of young South Koreans” because of his efforts to promote democracy, fight corruption, and facilitate rapprochement with North Korea.

The Associated Press reported (30 May): “’Roh lived a life dedicated to human rights, democracy and fighting authoritarianism. Our people won’t forget what he accomplished despite hardships,’ Prime Minister Han Seung-soo said.” Han called Roh “a true people’s president,” saying all South Koreans were grieving “with heavy hearts.”

Around the Seoul City Hall, walls were covered with posters accusing President Lee of driving Roh to his death with a politically-motivated investigation for alleged bribery. Opposition lawmakers, notably Assemblyman Baek Won-woo, jeered Lee as he and wife approached Roh’s coffin to pay their last respects. “President Lee Myung-bak, apologize! This is political revenge, political murder,” Baek shouted, before he was hauled away.

Roh’s wife and two children, as well as former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam, were among more than 2,500 at the funeral services. Roh’s suicide note, in which he begged his family: “Don’t be too sad.” and revealed his unbearable suffering, was read aloud during his last rites.

Roh’s death triggered waves of grief across South Korea. One million mourners marched to pay their final respects. Some 140 mourning sites across the nation drew two million more people, lining up for hours to leave flowers and messages, mostly sad, others angry toward President Lee.

China’s response

Crucial to US initiatives to compel Pyongyang’s unpredictable regime to toe the line is China’s response. General Ma Xiaotian, Deputy Chief of the People’s Liberation Army and China’s highest representative at the Singapore conference declared that Beijing was committed to a nuclear-free Korean peninsula and restated China’s firm opposition to Pyongyang’s nuclear-testing.
Seoul media reported that the NoKors:

(1) Were bolstering defenses and conducting amphibious assault exercises;
(2) Had delimited a large western coastal area as a “no-sail zone,” being a likely launch site;
(3) Will test-launch tactical missiles in addition to the long-range rocket fired April 5 that went 3,200 kilometers, overflying Japan before crashing into the Pacific; and,
(4) May fire a more powerful ICBM before June 16 when RoK President Lee goes to Washington, D.C. on President Obama’s invitation.

On these issues, China and South Korea, as close economic partners since establishing diplomatic relations in 1992, generally share the same views because of the fear of floods of refugees crossing into their territories in the event of a shooting war or internal NoKor collapse.
ASEAN+South Korea free trade area

Last May 31, PGMA left for South Korea for the ASEAN-RoK Summit meeting marking the 20th anniversary of their relations. Earlier that day, the late former RoK President Roh Moo-hyun – who 6 days before had leaped to his death from a cliff in remorse while being investigated for allegedly taking bribes – was laid to rest.

Seoul had hoped to strengthen economic, political and cultural links with ASEAN, correcting what analysts considered an excessive focus on Northeast Asia. But, North Korea moved high up the ASEAN-RoK agenda after its second nuke test, followed by renouncing the 1953 armistice, and testing six short-range missiles.

Leaders at the summit described the NoKor blast as “a provocative act which seriously undermines regional and world peace,” according to a RoK presidential spokesman. At the signing of the ASEAN-RoK FTA last 02 June, Lee announced plans to raise South Korea’s annual trade with Southeast Asia to $150 billion in the next six years from the current $90 billion. He also committed to double official development assistance to ASEAN to $400 million by 2015. Already, ASEAN is South Korea’s third largest trading partner, and RoK’s second largest destination for overseas investment, which reached US$5.9 billion last year.

The ASEAN+RoK FTA covers a market of 640 million and constitutes a powerful mechanism to fight protectionism amid the global economic crisis.

Only the ASEAN+Japan FTA remains uncompleted which, when finally approved, would bind Southeast and Northeast Asia in a stronger economic framework.

Nokor’s succession problems

The Associated Press (June 4) speculated that the provocations by North Korea are part of a campaign to promote support for “Commander” Kim Jong-un, 26 year-old third son of “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il who is in poor health, and hopes to turnover leadership come 2012 on the 100th birth anniversary of Kim Il-sung, the “Great Leader” who died in 1994. Not much is known about the young “Commander” except that he was secretly educated in Switzerland and considered “introverted” by schoolmates.

Obviously, the young Kim is still inexperienced and, if not properly guided, may later lead his trouble-ridden nation into anarchy. Do the NoKor leadership problems carry warning bells for the Philippines with 2010 fast approaching? Certainly – because dictatorships and dynasties do not endure.

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