“The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind.” — Bob Dylan

If popularity surveys are to be believed, and they are not always credible, this country could encounter turbulent politics and instability after 2010.

To start with, uncertainty and violence have generally characterized the world in 2009. This climate of volatility will continue and could worsen if, for example, the Iranian nuke issue remains unresolved, leading to confrontational brinkmanship, and the Palestinian conflict deteriorates. The ripple effects will be felt all over the world and the United States will inexorably be sucked into a Vietnam-type quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan both of which are unwinnable wars.

Indeed, while violence and civil wars have dominated the international scene in 2009 from Sri Lanka to Indonesia, to Thailand, Gaza, Pakistan, Iraq, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, and West Africa, the breakdown in the world order continues as the global financial crisis is taking longer to bottom out, making economic recovery everywhere, with the exception of China, pitifully slow, tentative, painful, and confusing.

The general prognostication is that some signs of rebound may start appearing in 2010 but sustainable recovery is forecast to take three to four years down the road.

The economic balance of power has irretrievably shifted to Asia, headed by irrepressible China and upstart India, which two Asian economic giants will greatly influence international geopolitics and world trade in the next decades.

On the other hand, the United States will not only remain the premier world military power but it has also the energy and power of renewal to remain a global leader.

However, the United States has to mend its profligate lifestyle of abusing the mighty dollar, mammoth budget deficits, and trade imbalances against the world to finance its phenomenal growth run in the last 20 years, so much so that China has become America’s major creditor nation.

For these reasons, to restore international equilibrium, the United States needs to lead the way by reforming world currencies, starting with the weakened dollar, balance the budget, promote freer trade, and encourage greater domestic savings habit.

Hence, in the complex world of violence, human rights abuses, genocide, human trafficking, global warming, rising cost of fossil fuels, continuing global economic recession, and looming food scarcity, all nations, big and small, have to mind their own backyards, so to speak, with imagination and aggressiveness in the midst of uncertainty and volatility.

Amid the turbulence and uncertainties, we worry that Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino or former President Joseph Estrada may not be up to these awesome responsibilities and may not have the profundity and vision to carry out these tasks.

At least, Sen. Manny Villar, CPA, waits patiently for his chance while the most qualified and eligible of them all, Sen. Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro, is huffing and puffing from behind, just trying to get to the starting line.

Last, 2010 is the Rubicon and crossroad of Philippine political of no return.

You be the judge.