The 190-country Copenhagen climate change conference on December 7, judging from related news and opinions from pundits, is likely to encounter rough sailing which perhaps is only consistent with its hype as a make-or-break event for UN climate talks.

For instance, the just-concluded ministerial meeting held earlier at Copenhagen last November 16-17 showed deepening schisms on even the most fundamental things as industrialized countries led by Japan, Canada, New Zealand, and Netherlands demanded that the political statement be the sole basis for forging a “single legal instrument” on the need to save planet Earth.

This, in essence, has the effect of discarding the Kyoto Protocol, an outcome not to the liking of developing countries. The treaty in 1997 bound by law the world’s 37 wealthiest nations to bring down emissions by 5.2 percent below the 1990 levels by 2012 which, by now, is an impossibility.

The Kyoto Protocol also took the position that the worst emitters, the rich countries including the US and EU, should undertake the biggest cuts and this stance has pushed rich countries to oppose the Kyoto deal which was not as strict on carbon emissions of developing economies like China and India.

In the aforesaid ministerial meeting, it is now being demanded that a political statement be crafted that will clearly show that all countries, including China and India, are binding themselves to reduction of greenhouse gas levels under the proposed new instrument.

The Indian delegation to the two-day Copenhagen ministerial meeting, attended by ministers and top officials from around the world, stated that “India is prepared to reflect in any agreement its commitment to keep its per capita emissions below that of the developed countries” – a takeoff from a statement made by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2008.

This gives the sense that India, now experiencing economic boom like China despite the global economic recession, is not too eager to make substantial emission cuts. In fact, India, together with the 140-member G-77 group, has strongly opposed the concept of a “single legal instrument,” saying that it will alter the guiding principles of the existing climate convention of the Kyoto Protocol.

This early, and this indeed is a sad commentary, things are not looking bright for the forthcoming Copenhagen climate talks. There is a dampening spirit brought about by the current impasse – the demand from rich countries for a new legal instrument to be enforced via the political statement.

Thus, it has been reported that world leaders are beginning to feel resigned to the looming scenario that the outcome of the Copenhagen conference would only be a mere political statement. And to think that whatever new climate treaty is reached at Copenhagen to save the environment under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will supersede the Kyoto Protocol starting on January 1, 2013.

At the top of the sticking points bedeviling the Copenhagen conference is the issue of “burden-sharing” – which countries ought to make the cuts and how much? A big fly-in-the-ointment is the compelling force that drives a country to develop and grow its economy and, unfortunately, with it comes increasing carbon emissions.

In this context, Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed has this to say about the coming Copenhagen climate summit: “At the moment every country arrives at the negotiation seeking to keep their own emissions as high as possible. They never make commitments unless someone else does. This is the logic of the madhouse, a recipe for collective suicide.”

Such a strong statement is expected from the president of Maldives, a country with one of the smallest carbon footprints in the world, a country now in grave peril of being swallowed up by the seas due to global warming.

Email: businessagenda_report@yahoo.com.ph.