“We were told that he was a young man of promise, but it appears that he is a young man of promises.”
— Arthur James Balfour on Winston Churchill

From Davao to Cotabato, and from Zamboanga to Cagayan de Oro, to Cebu, Negros to Bacolod and other urban areas, the political cauldron is starting to boil.

The main topic of conversation centers on the presidential race and local rivalries.

The interest on the vice-presidential candidates and senatorial contenders is ambivalent and unexciting. Even the whereabouts of Sen. Panfilo Lacson do not interest the locals.

For the first time, there is little interest in the senatorial race. The few re-electionists, who are not exactly God’s gift to the Filipino people, have the advantage of name recall.

Of the approximately 80 candidates for senators, a voter will be hard put to remember six names out of 12 from the same political party.

Thus, this May election is mind-boggling in confusion and unmanageability.

Having said the above, the total focus, from the market place to school fora, to golf courses, to restaurants, to church organizations, and civic assemblies, is on the four presidential candidates out of the 10 accredited candidates, namely: Sec. Gilbert Teodoro, Sen. Benigno Aquino, III, Sen. Manuel Villar, and former President Joseph Estrada, respectively, without totally discounting Sen. Richard Gordon, and Bro. Eddie Villanueva who are making their presence felt.

For the first time, citizens are overtly and vocally advocating their preferences not based on popularity surveys, or biased television coverages, or expensive advertisements, but on the basis of their own emotional subjective judgment or personal acquaintance with any of the candidates, or past association with them.

In truth, provincial voters are less influenced by Manila media or commissioned surveys as they perceive these surveys to be self-serving, biased or bought by vested interests.

Surprisingly, while President Arroyo is the bete noir and central election issue by the opposition, she, on the other hand, retains considerable goodwill among the rural population. She is well appreciated by the citizens or the Visayas and Mindanao for her tangible economic accomplishments.

It follows that the “kiss of death” association with President Arroyo is less damaging to Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro than alleged or perceived.

By contrast, the unresolved and continuing C-5 issue against Sen. Manuel Villar has inflicted severe damage to the credibility and trustworthiness of Sen. Villar as a future steward of the national interest.

In the province, word of honor, honesty, and reliability are criteria that rural folks regard with utmost importance.

As in Luzon, the popularity of Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino is beginning to wane as the Cory “mystique” steadily fades.

Increasingly, voters are questioning Senator Aquino’s track record; competence, and intellect for the awesome tasks and problems facing the nation in the next six years.

On the other hand, based on subjective observations and local sentiments, there is a discernible upsurge and exuberance for Sen. Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro as he makes his presence and visibility more accessible to the rural population.

Moreover, as soon as the incumbent Lakas-Kampi-CMD elected officials from congressmen to governors, mayors and local councils decide to cast their chances with Teodoro, with a little push from his former colleagues in the Nationalist Peoples’ Coalition which is the second largest political party, the bandwagon and snowballing effect will be evident.

When all is said and done, with time permitting, better logistics and organization, the next President will either be Gilbert Teodoro, or Manny Villar, or Noynoy Aquino in that order unless there is a dramatic and unexpected twist in the political equation, or failure of election.

You be the judge. (For comments and views, please e-mail: chaff_fromthegrain@yahoo.com.ph)