The fastest expansion in world trade in three years is clogging up ports from Australia to Brazil, driving a 32 percent jump in charter rates by December.

The rate for leasing capesizes, boats three times the size of the Statue of Liberty, will average $39,000 a day in the fourth quarter, from $29,649 now, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts. Higher costs for the ships, the biggest part of the commodity fleet, will bolster returns for Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., Nippon Yusen K.K. and China Cosco Holdings Co., analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg show.

While the 14 percent decline in world trade last year caused prices to plunge as much as 76 percent from their peak in June, increasing demand for coal now means 55 ships are waiting to load at Newcastle in Australia, up from 17 a year ago. Lengthening lines at the iron-ore ports of Tubarao in Brazil and Qingdao in China also reflect a recovering global economy and accelerating demand for raw materials.

“Once congestion is really taking a grip, you can have 12 percent of the fleet stuck in ports,” said Philippe van den Abeele, London-based managing director of Castalia Fund Management (U.K.) Ltd., which trades freight derivatives. Charter rates “will improve irrespective of the number of ships out there,” he said.

Shipping costs that quadrupled last year on signs the global economy was recovering have retreated 20 percent in 2010 on concern that a record fleet expansion will overwhelm any rebound in demand. Laid end-to-end, the new ships would stretch about 60 miles, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Clarkson Research Services Ltd.

Forward freight agreements traded by brokers and used to bet on or hedge against future dry bulk rates anticipate a fourth-quarter average of $29,825, according to data from Imarex ASA in Oslo. That’s 0.6 percent more than current costs and 24 percent below the median in the Bloomberg survey.

Golden Ocean Group Ltd., the commodities shipping line led by Norwegian billionaire John Fredriksen, said profit fell 33 percent last year to $238.9 million. Cie. Maritime Belge SA, owner of shipping line Bocimar International NV, said earnings slumped 44 percent to 118.9 million euros ($162.1 million).

Now, the Washington-based World Bank predicts a 4.3 percent gain in trade volumes this year and 6.2 percent in 2011. Ships carry about 90 percent of world trade, the Round Table of International Shipping Associations estimates. (Bloomberg)