RAMON, Isabela – Unless it rains between now and March 21, 2010, Magat Dam here will be forced to shut down its operations, which would probably heighten the occurrence of rotating brownouts in Northern Luzon.

As this developed, the power shortage in Mindanao continues due to critical water levels at reservoirs in Lake Lanao and Pulangi, sources of Mindanao grid, prompting the government to study several options to raise energy supply in the South.

Officials of Sn Aboitiz Power Corp. Magat (SNAP), operator of the dam, said that if there will be no sufficient rainfall by March 21 and water level continuously drop to the very critical level of 150 meters above sea level, the power plant will be forced to stop its operations temporarily. This would affect the power supply of Northern Luzon as well as the provision of irrigation water to vast tracks of agricultural farms in Isabela. The dam supplies power to seven Luzon provinces.

Based on the continuous monitoring done by the power plant’s management, they uncovered that the water level of the 360-megawatt Magat Dam dropped to 154 meters above sea level which is 26 meters lower than its normal level of 180 meters above sea level.

However, lawyer Mike Hosillos, SNAP external affairs manager, assured the people of Northern Luzon who will be affected by the looming shut down of Magat Dam that they are looking into other power sources to supply the needed electricity requirement in its service areas.

Hosillos said all possible efforts are being supported by the Aboitiz-owned power company just to bring artificial rain in Northern Luzon to mitigate the effects of the prolonged dry spell on the country’s agriculture and energy sectors but it seems the prevailing conditions are not attuned with the times.

Earlier, cloud-seeding operations conducted over the Magat Dam were considered to be failures since it did not induce rains. However, more cloud-seeding activities will be done provided the situation will allow it.

Aside from the Magat Dam, the Ambuclao and Binga dams in Benguet and the San Roque dam in Pangasinan are also suffering from the same depletion of water level, thus, their production is no longer instrumental in sustaining sufficient power for the Luzon grid.

Ambuclao has been temporarily decommissioned due to the ongoing rehabilitation to increase its power output to nearly 120 megawatts, while Binga Dam in the lower portion of the Agno River is also in a very critical situation due to the absence of sufficient water inflow into its reservoir.

Furthermore, the San Roque Dam, the second largest in Asia, is also realizing depleted water supply and is slowly reaching its very critical level that might result in its temporary stoppage of operations within the next few weeks if there will be no rain that will pour over its watersheds and reservoir.

In Mindanao, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippine (NGCP) said that most of the hydro-electric power plants in Lake Lanao in Marawi City and Pulangi in Bukidnon have already limited capabilities due to the critical water level.

The situation continue to trigger generation deficiency that result in the curtailment of power load transmitted to Mindanao grid users, the NGCP advisory said.

The NGCP said Monday night that Mindanao power supply was already recorded at 673 megawatts, insufficient to meet the peak demand of 1,451 MW.

The NGCP said the Mindanao grid, which relies on hydro-electric power for its electricity requirements, said that Lake Lanao, which supplies the water that operates the turbines of National Power Corporation’s (Napocor) Agus Plants, has been greatly affected by the dry spell of the El Niño weather disturbance. The lake’s current elevation is already at 699.03 meters, which is below the critical level of 699.15 meters.

These hydro-electric power plants will have the following available capacities during the peak hours in the evening: Agus 1 (10 MW), Agus 2 (15 MW), Agus 4 (20 MW), Agus 5 (6 MW), Agus 6 (20 MW), Agus 7 (7 MW), and Pulangi (20 MW).

“Adding extra power supply to the island is the Western Mindanao Power Corp. (WMPC) plant, owned and operated by the Alcantara Group of Companies which is now giving 90 MW to the grid, an improvement from the previous 80 MW,” said NGCP advisory.