The turnover last 10 March of the AFP Chief of Staff office from retiring Gen. Victor Ibrado to LtGen. Delfin Bangit – with PGMA presiding – was an important event. Bangit’s long-expected appointment to head the AFP took place in a formal parade and review with all the military trimmings, but was just a so-so, non-exciting ceremony because PGMA missed a great opportunity to straighten things out, recapture the AFP’s full loyalty, and recover for herself a good measure of people’s confidence and trust.

If, at Camp Aguinaldo, she had ordered directly both the AFP and PNP – in full view of the public – to do their Constitutional duty faithfully round-the-clock, she could have ended once and for all the speculations and intrigues of political manipulators, and removed the uncertainty and discomfort of millions of Filipinos and foreign observers.

PGMA failed to grab that great opportunity. Instead, the soldiers and audience were subjected to the same litany of Arroyo achievements being repeated on broadcast and print media.

Ticking time bombs during PGMA’s administration

Last July 27, 2008, I reminded our leaders, particularly PGMA, in my column: “SONA: Wish List, Hit List, or Legacy:” “The unattended or poorly managed problems of national society, particularly of ordinary Filipinos, constitute ticking time-bombs that could explode and damage/divert/capsize/sink our Philippine Ship. On board are all Filipinos (here/overseas), foreign residents, and unborn generations.

“Like military explosives, our socio-economic-political ‘time-bombs’ can still be defused, neutralized, or somehow mitigated by landmark reforms. Our elected leaders should put their acts together, and focus/ converge on short-term remedial actions which, optimally, must be undertaken within – and only within – a strategic, long-term framework that builds state capacity and people’s competitiveness.

“This is what the UN MDG and sustainable development are all about. Considering our depressed condition and lowered people’s morale, uncoordinated, quickie and populist projects will not work and be just a waste of time, resources, and goodwill.

“Unless the multi-dimensional global issues are squarely addressed – and corrective measures undertaken without delay – PGMA’s legacy, on balance, will be one of decline not progress.”

Continuing explosive threats

Of the original eight time-bombs, only one could be deemed partially solved – which remains still a major problem and “work-in-progress.” That Sunday column twenty months ago outlined these threats:

(1) Mass poverty due to overpopulation, rising prices, and deepening rich-poor gap.

(2) Environmental degradation, less potable water, reduced natural resources, and land-use conflicts.

(3) Reputation for official corruption and bureaucratic redtape leading to higher costs.

(4) Disputatious/flip-flopping culture in decision-making.

(5) A divided society with vestiges of feudal paternalism predominating.

(6) Lack of durable peace in Mindanao and other places.

(7) Unlevel playing field favoring monopolists, dynastists and oligarchs.

(8) Non-credible electoral processes and abuse by tradpols/turncoats.”

The long-standing electoral problem we consider as being partially resolved with Comelec computerization/automation processes already “hardwared” for the May, 2010, elections. Like it or not, however, its manual component will still be taking place because of projected electric power shortages in various places until big rains come in July.

“Manual Aspects” not by Comelec alone

Apart from power failures, we know, only too well, that the manual dimensions are likely to happen more from two not-too-readily-seen but inevitable factors: (1) lack of familiarity with electronic ballots and the Comelec’s hi-tech processes, and (2) electoral fraud/manipulation/ collusion by “dirty minds” at every step of the electoral flow all the way to the corridors of power.

The latter, more insidious case, only PGMA can stop by immediately ordering her allies/operators (including others of the “Hello Garci” tribe) to stay clean under pain of prosecution/punishment, and herself to strictly implement her own such directive – leading by example as Philippine President, and not as partisan player gunning for Congress.

No less than a clear, uncompromising public announcement and written Executive Order exhorting “No-Election-Monkey-Business Under Pain of Imprisonment” – to all public/private agencies and voting citizens – would work to eliminate this second, more sinister “criminal hands” intervention.

2010 “IEDs”

Based on favorite topics of media and various forums, it seems most of the 2008 vintage “bombs” continue to tick dangerously, with little time, goodwill and credibility remaining.

PGMA’s unswerving focus on her self-interest – resulting in faulty decisions, inaction or complacency on these national problems – has predictably, created new socio-economic threats or improvised explosive devices (IEDs). We use the term “IEDs” because these additional dangers are mainly due to homegrown Administration lapses and/or divide-and-rule policies which amount to shooting the President’s own feet, namely:

(1) Unwillingness of PGMA to relinquish power by aspiring for a House seat/ Speakership while still sitting President.

(2) PGMA’s sub-zero ratings that are liabilities for honest workers in her Administration, and disincentive for investments.

(3) Nationwide hunger at record high (24 percent) since 2001 – SWS survey.

(4) More Filipinos poor – PGMA Economic Adviser/Albay Governor Joey Salceda (Philippine Daily Inquirer, Mar. 8).

(5) Foreign debt service of US$5.2 billion (R238 billion) (Manila Bulletin, Jan. 26) eating up the social services budget and connective infrastructure funds.

(6) Lack of long-term countermeasures against droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, massive flooding, etc. due to environmental degradation.

(7) Steady increase and alarming rate of HIV/AIDS (400 percent in 2009, Philippine Star, Mar. 10) and other infectious diseases.

(8) Suspicions about new AFP leaders – maybe unfounded, perhaps unfair, but nevertheless widespread.

Personal priorities above people’s welfare

The saddest part of these unfolding dangers is that, it being election season, most “wannabes” have found more important priorities that do not jibe with their avowed reason for seeking public office, i.e. concern for the well-being of country and people.

The Executive, Legislative and the Judiciary (at the level of the Supreme Court) will have to first organize their leadership line-ups come June 30, 2010 before any reformist, strategic work can begin. From now until then (108 days from today), the direction, security, and over-all competitiveness of our Philippine Ship will remain in limbo due to election frenzy.

Even while most everyone is frantically campaigning for votes, PGMA is supposed to be the mandatory tower of executive strength, with head held high over political frays, looking after the nation’s welfare until the election fallout settles. But, because she has chosen to be in the center of the election melee, Filipinos might as well start praying harder than before so no ticking “bombs” blow up in our faces.

Commitments of the AFP and PNP

Insofar as future AFP involvements are concerned, General (ret.) Ramon Montaño, former Chief, Philippine Constabulary/Integrated National Police and Presidential Assistant on Police Affairs has warned (Philippine Daily Inquirer, Mar. 10): “Retired MGen. Ramon Montaño said ex-officers like himself ‘in touch with still idealistic elements’ of the military were apprehensive that the AFP under General Bangit’s leadership would again be used to frustrate the people’s will.

“In 2004, PGMA skillfully used her cabal of blindly-loyal military officers and political running dogs to destroy the political opposition. It included the purported involvement of ranking officers in ensuring PGMA’s victory over Fernando Poe Jr., as revealed in ‘Hello Garci’ tapes... ‘We pray that this Administration’s desperate plot to cling to power shall be stopped by the might of the Filipino people and the idealistic, honorable AFP members,’ Montaño said.”

The speculation about the AFP remains just that – “speculation” – until General Bangit proves otherwise. In fairness to him, however, he must be credited with enough intellect and sense of responsibility to do right by the Constitution and our people when the crunch comes. His statement that “I will not allow anybody to use me for partisan politics. Only God can use me,” are brave words of assurance, and so is PNP Director-General Jesus Versoza’s bold statement that “I won’t obey illegal orders.”

AFP/PNP Culture

These two declarations from our military and police Chiefs are, in effect, outright challenges to PGMA and cohorts to avoid any hanky-panky, and for such commitments to become PGMA’s own. For this to become a positive, clear-cut mandate to go all the way down the uniformed rank-and-file and the citizenry.

PGMA should forthwith issue an executive order to confirm/institutionalize the same, and herself become the main example of its compliance.

OUR soldier/policemen would welcome the commander-in-chief’s written commitment with them as proof of her own spirit of sacrifice and patriotism. In AFP/PNP culture, this is S.O.P. (Standard Operating Procedure).

Sumama ka sa amin, Ginang Pangulo.

Abangan, next Sunday: More USA.!

Please send any comments to fvr@rpdev.org. Copies of articles are available at www.rpdev.org.