A tropical depression, to be named “Agaton,” is expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) Wednesday afternoon, state weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Tuesday.

PAGASA senior weather forecaster Robert Sawi said the cyclone is expected to further intensify into a tropical storm before it enters the Philippine territory this afternoon.

“The tropical cyclone is expected to enter the PAR at noon or afternoon of Wednesday if the speed of the cyclone is sustained. However, this will not intensify into a typhoon,” Sawi said in a press conference.

Once it enters the country, the cyclone will likely be located in the east of the Visayas.

As of noon Tuesday, the tropical cyclone was located hovering over the Pacific Ocean at a distance of 1,430 kilometers from the east of northern Mindanao with maximum sustained winds of 55 kph moving west northwest at a speed of 19 kph.

He said good weather condition until this afternoon is still expected, as the cyclone will still have no direct effect on the country.

He added that the cyclone is expected to bring light rains, particularly in the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao, in the next few days.

“There will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers in most parts of the country. Meanwhile, it will still be warm and humid all throughout the country,” Sawi said.

PAGASA Administrator Prisco Nilo said the most likely scenario is that Agaton will not hit the country and will have minimal effect because of the occurrence of a weather system called “trough.”

“A frontal trough or canal in the northern part of the country near China, where the weather is still cold, is pulling the cyclone and diverting its direction away from the country. Before it could make a landfall in Luzon, the cyclone will likely dissipate,” Sawi said.

According to PAGASA senior weather specialist Daisy Ortega, the El Niño episode also causes the diversion of the tropical cyclone’s path.

Based on PAGASA’s 5 a.m. weather bulletin Tuesday, a wind convergence is still affecting Mindanao and Eastern Visayas, bringing mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. (Ellalyn B. de Vera)