(Editor’s note: PAGASA’s problem is waiting for storms (for days or weeks) to hit us, but NAIA’s nightmare is hourly extreme anxiety as noted by the author.)

Storm trackers at the University of Hawaii as of 4 p.m., Tuesday, July 13, placed Metro Manila smack in the path of “Basyang.” Our own PAGASA pushed the route up through Central Luzon far north.

The Hawaii U track prevailed with admirable accuracy. (As presented by MB graphics, July 14 issue) This gross error moved the Palace to reprimand (better still, scold) our forecasters, who justified their poor judgement with the usual alibi: Lack of modern instrument to fully stalk the storm.

Consult Hawii U

Suggestion: PAGASA needs to consult Hawaii U when in doubt, but credit the guess where credit is due.

There’s also a need to send Filipino meteorologists to train and study weather forecasting in Hawaii and update their old knowledge/expertise.

At coffee shop circuits, observers note: PAGASA needs only a cellphone call to Hawaii and get the right storm track in the direction of RP.

Predictable

Most storms that pass RP with clockwork regularity and first, brew mischief in the wide Pacific, east of RP (north to south). If our prediction is correct, like Hawaii’s forecast, it would save lives by the dozens and losses/damage, by the billions, to infrastructure, farms/fishing, homes, business, etc.

Too small for ‘pork’

An investment in modern facilities/equipment costing, say P500 M or P1 B, may need shift of “burden” to not more than 10 senators and congressman with a huge pork fund that cannot be “safely” audited by CoA.

PAGASA is the problem

The problem of PAGASA is not their constant failure to give out accurate warnings to the population, but the lack of boldness, assertiveness, scholarship, and distinction of their officials. They are too proud to seek assistance from Hawaii, a Pacific island and US state.

In most progressive countries, weather reminders are given through TV/radio every 10/30 minutes, definitely not every six hours as is PAGASA’s habit.

Lack of logic

Café critics have this logic which PAGASA officials sorely missed this week: It’s within their “intelligence and discretion” to tell us 10 hours before 11 p.m. of Tuesday, July 13, that the storm’s track may still change and directly hit Metro Manila, with a firm reminder that Metro Manilans, some 12 M to 15 M, including eastern Rizal, and not to WAIT for SIX HOURS, as dictated by their machines. Human minds can do more wonders than machines.

Bigger problem at NAIA

Most knowledgeable persons believe that old and indispensable instruments to guide touchdown/takeoff of commercial flights cannot be safely repaired like a 10-year-old car that is towed to a repair shop once a week.

Navigation instruments are not like cars with parts such as radiator, clutch, brake, etc. In the last two weeks NAIA’s trustworthiness has been put in question by travel agencies, airlines, and passengers as budget tourists.

Negligence too clear

NAIA’s neglect of safety is an hourly and daily occurrence, not an a.m. or p.m. problem once a week.

PAGASA officials can sleep for one week until roused from deep slumber by an LPA (low-pressure area) which they monitor if it could developed into a storm in two to four days. If there’s no danger of landfall, there’s not much problem except to fishing and navigation.

Just one runway

Before the age of modern aviation after 1946, the government owned public lands (near the NAIA) that could be paved to have two or three runways. Before Yasser Arafat could realize his dream of a Palestinian state, he built a one-runway airport that could safely land a B-747. This runway measures 2,800 (2.8 km) by 60m or a total area of 168,000 sqm or 16.8 hectares (less than the 20-ha. walled UST campus).

Between 1946 and 1949, our government owned more than 100 has. and was lawfully entitled to expropriate private wasteland for conversion into a world-class runway to allow three places to have a simultaneous takeoff and touchdown. Foreign tourists would have preferred a former US possession to undistinguished foreign possessions in 1953.

Missing the jet age

When the jet age started landing bigger planes in Manila, our politicians did not think of two or three runways for generations after 1953.

That’s the reason NAIA has one dilapidated runway that cannot compete with Changi of Singapore and the huge airports in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc

In the old days our politicians played traditional politics without minding world tourism as a solid source of dollar or euro windfall. (Comments are welcome at roming@pefianco.com)