Owners of supertankers delivering the world’s seaborne crude oil may follow industry leader Frontline Ltd. and stop leasing the vessels until a plunge in rental income is reversed, shipping analysts said.

“We expect other owners to follow suit,” Arctic Securities ASA analysts Martin Sommerseth Jaer and Erik Nikolai Stavseth said in an e-mailed report Tuesday. “Ship owners are now likely joining forces to limit vessel supply.”

Daily returns for very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, on the industry’s benchmark route from Saudi Arabia to Japan have slid 93 percent to $6,336 since January, Baltic Exchange data show. Frontline will anchor ships and decline cargoes until conditions improve, Jens Martin Jensen, chief executive officer of the company’s management unit, said Aug. 4.

The four-week supply of ships fell by 16 vessels yesterday, double the number of charters, Imarex Asia Pte, a Singapore-based unit of freight-derivatives broker Imarex ASA, said Tuesday. That raised the question of whether some owners may be withholding carriers from the spot market, it said.

About 39.6 million barrels of crude oil are shipped by sea each day, according to data from Clarkson Research Services Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. The International Energy Agency estimates global demand will average 86.5 million barrels a day in the present quarter.

Owners may follow Frontline’s lead while rental income remains below $10,000 a day, Simon Chattrabhuti, head of tanker research at ICAP Shipping International Ltd., said by e-mail Tuesday. That’s the amount ICAP estimates owners need to pay crew, repairs and other operating expenses.

Once finance costs are included, Frontline requires $31,100 a day, it said May 21. The company is the world’s biggest supertanker operator.

The world’s 10 largest VLCC owners control 237 of the ships, according to Clarkson. That equates to 45 percent of the 532-strong fleet of the vessels, according to Lloyd’s Register- Fairplay data on Bloomberg. A VLCC can carry 2 million barrels of crude.

Frontline’s decision has caused freight derivatives to strengthen, implying charter rates will rise later this year, Lorentzen & Stemoco A/S and First Securities A/S said in a joint report Tuesday. (Bloomberg)