Thailand weathers riots, heads for 6-7% growth
SINGAPORE, Sept. 1 (Reuters) – Thailand's economy will weather a dip in the current quarter to post growth of 6-7 percent in 2010, with foreign investor interest undeterred by this year's social and political turmoil, its finance minister said.
''The country went through the ultimate stress test, a near revolution, and yet no impact at all on (foreign investors') ability to do business,'' Korn Chatikavanij told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.
Expecting continuing flows of foreign direct investment and portfolios to Southeast Asia's second biggest economy, Korn said exporters should brace for a stronger baht, Asia's third best performing currency with a 6.5 percent gain this year.
''If I were a foreign investor, I would have justification saying: 'Look, Thailand had a worst case scenario and no impact','' he said in Singapore.
''Growth in that quarter actually rose against what was already a very strong first quarter.''
Thailand avoided a widely expected contraction in the second quarter, growing 0.2 percent from the January-March period and soaring 9.1 percent year on year.
The expansion was attributed to strong export growth, offsetting the impact of political violence in Bangkok in April and May that killed 91 people and hit the tourism industry and private consumption.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand finished the month of August as Southeast Asia's best performing bourse, racking up a 6.7 percent gain, while the baht rose 3 percent during the month.
Korn said the global slowdown would take a toll in the third quarter, when Thailand's $264 billion economy could post a ''small decline'' from the second quarter.
''I would be surprised if we can nudge up another quarter on quarter increase...It won't be flat, it will be a decline.''
Korn said the economy should grow by up to 7 percent for the whole year.
The state planning agency is more bullish in its projection, which it raised last week to 7.0-7.5 percent from the 3.5-4.5 percent forecast in May, prompting Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to say growth should be above 7 percent.
Korn said the baht and most Asian currencies would continue to strengthen in the medium and long term on the back of a weaker recovery in the United States, urging exporters to lessen volatility by pricing in other currencies, including the yuan.
''Ideally they should try to price their products, for consistency to lessen their currency risks, in the currency of their trading partners,'' including the yuan , he said.


