2010 GDP growth may top 5%-6% gov't target – NEDA

By CHINO S. LEYCO
September 2, 2010, 12:55am

After the economy pulled off another surprise in the second quarter, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second-half may top the 5 percent to 6 percent 2010 goal, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano W. Paderanga, Jr. told lawmakers yesterday that the higher than programmed economic growth this year will be supported by consumption, trade and manufacturing sector.

However, Paderanga also said the global economic conditions, a possible weakness in government revenue and higher oil prices pose risks to the 2010 GDP growth target.

“The outlook for the US dollar remains uncertain,” he said, adding faster consumer prices increase and exchange rate volatility may also add pressures on the economic expansion.

Paderanga said the Philippines' GDP growth of 7.9 percent in the second-quarter is faster than Indonesia and Vietnam but slower than Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore.

Earlier, the cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has revised upwards the country’s GDP growth target to 5 percent to 6 percent instead of 2.6 percent to 3.6 percent this year and to seven percent to seven percent next year.

Meanwhile, Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima said that he is confident that the country's manufacturing sector will remain strong for the rest of the year and drive the GDP for the remaining months.

He added that infrastructure and investments will support this year's growth. Purisima said the government will tap the private sector to help in building infrastructure and attract resources for investments.

In the second-quarter of 2010, Paderanga said the growth was mainly driven by the private sector with investment in durable equipment up by a hefty 34.1 percent. Uptick in public construction, also, contributed to the 22.5 percent increase in construction expenditure.

Significant improvement in private construction spending was noted as total gross value added in private construction grew by 13.8 percent in the second quarter.

Another factor was the upbeat in private consumption as evidenced by the sustained increase in spending on essentials such as food, transportation and communication, utilities, and beverages.

On the other hand, external demand, mainly, reflected the continuing recovery of the global economy with many economies in Asia, including the Philippines, growing robustly. This was mirrored by the expansion in the country's net exports, thus providing more impetus for growth.

Merchandise exports remained vibrant in the second quarter, growing by 30.2 percent in real terms as the country benefited from the strong growth in many of its Asian trading partners and the uptick in import demand of the United States.

Exports of services, likewise, maintained its strong growth with a 17.2 percent expansion in the second quarter on the backdrop of a vibrant Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry and other IT (information technology)-enabled services in the country.

The increase in merchandise trade flows also provided firm support to the export of transportation services including cargo handling, storage and warehousing, and packing services, Paderanga said.