QUANTICO, Virginia (AFP) — North Korea’s regime has long defied naysayers by persevering through famines, floods, and global opprobrium. But what would happen if the upcoming power transition marks the beginning of the end?

In the view of one US military strategist, a collapse of North Korea – a dirt-poor nation with an indoctrinated population and nuclear-armed military – could result in no less than the greatest world crisis in modern times.

Col. David Maxwell, who heads the Strategic Initiatives Group at the Army’s Special Operations Command, said that the United States needed to invest more time planning for the most dire scenario, even if it does not transpire.

US troops have been stationed in South Korea since the 1950-53 war to guard against attack. A North Korean advance could easily hit densely populated Seoul, just an hour’s drive from the frontier, and would send shockwaves through economic powers Japan, China, and South Korea.

“I believe a conventional attack by the North would be the worst crisis that the international community has faced since the end of World War II,’’ Maxwell said in a presentation at the Marines Corps University in Quantico, Virginia. “But I think the real worst case would be regime collapse,’’ said Maxwell, who stressed he was speaking in a private capacity.

Questions have been rising about North Korea’s stability since Kim Jong-Il apparently suffered a debilitating stroke in 2008. Last year, the government faced unusual public resistance after a bungled currency revaluation sent prices skyrocketing.

The ruling party is expected this month to anoint Kim’s youngest son as his successor, marking the hermetic regime’s second hereditary change of power. Kim Jong-Un is in his 20s and is not known to have experience in governance.

If the regime collapsed, foreign forces would likely face a major threat from insurgents whose belief in the Kim family’s philosophy of “juche’’ – or self-reliance – resembles religious fanaticism, Maxwell argued.

“The North Korean people will not welcome the South Korean military, international forces or anybody outside of North Korea,’’ Maxwell said.