Global stock markets, including the Philippine bourse, will take cues from the US inflation rate for February that will be reported this week to better gauge the next move of the Federal Reserve. “A strong inflation print, especially one that beats January’s 6.4 percent, may put downward pressure on both the Philippine Peso and the local market as this would point to more rate hikes by the Fed,” said Philstocks Research Manager Japhet Tantiangco. For its part, 2TradeAsia.com said that, “After a series of hawkish comments from no less than the Fed's Powell last week, attention will turn to US CPI print for February next week---this is likely the final puzzle piece needed to gauge the next rate change.” It noted that, “Powell already hinted for more aggressive rate hikes (back to 50 bps increments, with consensus terminal rate at 5.75 percent) that have begun to spook risk assets anew, after expectations of a pivot began to spark funds flow earlier in the year.” “With recession fears back on the table, brace for more volatility down the line, as the macro continues to paint a 'more of the same picture as in 2022 (e.g., more emphasis on asset-specific fundamentals in broad-based growth)” the brokerage said. Tantiangco added that, “Here at home, investors may also take cues from our foreign trade and OFW remittance data for cues. A wider balance of trade deficit and weak remittance data may also weigh on our local currency’s trading which in turn is seen to have negative spillovers on the market.” For technicals, he said that, “Once again, the local market has breached its 6,600 support level. Moving forward, the said level is expected to be retested.” “If the market is able to get back above the said line, then we expect it to resume its trading within the 6,600 - 6,800 level. If it is unable to do so however, the market may continue to decline with the 6,400 level as its next support,” said Tangtiangco. For stock picks, COL Financial is recommending banks: China Bank, BDO Unibank and Security Bank. “We currently have a BUY rating on China Bank… We expect the bank’s lending business and core fee income to continue expanding as the economy continues to recover this year. We also believe that its asset quality will remain healthy as businesses continue to operate at higher capacities,” the brokerage said. It also favors BDO “as we expect it to be one of the major beneficiaries of the continued recovery of the economy and the rising rate environment, given the bank’s strong deposit franchise and liquid balance sheet.” COL also has a BUY rating on Security Bank “as we expect it to be one of the major beneficiaries of economic recovery. Looking forward, we believe that its relatively high capital ratios and liquid balance sheet will allow it to pursue opportunities to grow its intermediation business.” Meanwhile, Abacus Securities Corporation places Aboitiz Power Corporation among its top picks “as higher spot prices year-to-date should support growth for the first quarter of 2023, considering that spot sales contributed 27 percent of the segment’s revenues in the fourth quarter of 2022.” “Moreover, the expected commercial operations of Cayanga solar by June and Tiwi Binary by the fourth quarter of this year should provide further support to earnings,” it added.