The Philippines’ balance of payments (BOP) surplus decreased to $353 million for the first 11 months after incurring a shortfall of $123 million in November, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

The end November BOP surplus of $353 million is significantly lower compared to same time last year of $11.79 billion surplus. The BOP has turned positive or began reporting an excess only in October this year and was in deficit from January to September. The surplus in end October was at $476 million.

According to the BSP, based on preliminary data, the cumulative BOP surplus “reflected inflows such as from personal remittances, trade in services, net foreign borrowings by the NG (National Government), and foreign direct investments, which were partly offset by a wider trade in goods deficit.” The Philippine Statistics Authority reported a trade deficit of $33.21 billion for January to October, up from $20 billion same time in 2020.

For the month of November only, the $123 million BOP deficit is a reversal of the $1.47 billion BOP surplus same time last year. The BSP said the outflows came from the government’s withdrawal of its foreign currency deposits with the central bank to pay for maturing foreign currency debt and to pay for other expenditures.

The BSP also reported a final gross internationa reserves (GIR) data of $107.72 billion as of end-November, slightly lower than end-October’s $107.89 billion.

Last Dec. 9, the BSP revised lower its projections for BOP and the GIR for 2021 and 2022 due to lingering pandemic-related uncertainties.

By end-2021, the BSP is projecting a lower BOP surplus of $1.6 billion versus its Sept. 16 estimate of $4.1 billion.

For 2022, the revised BOP surplus projection is $700 million, lower than previous estimate of $1.7 billion.

The GIR’s projection has also been revised lower for this year to $111 billion from the Sept. 16 estimate of $114 billion. For 2022, the country’s dollar reserves are expected to reach $112 billion, also lower than earlier projection of $115 billion.

BSP officials said the latest BOP assessment for 2021 has factored in “pockets of optimism” with the “encouraging economic outturns in recent months” despite the “continued high uncertainty from pandemic-related challenges on the other hand.”

They added that “global economic recovery is seen to remain broadly on track, while at the domestic front, there are indications that the spread of the highly transmissible COVID-19 Delta variant has been contained.”