#MINDANAO By JOHN TRIA John Tria As I write this, COVID case trackers show how Mindanao has not gone beyond 200 cases and that recovery rates here are much higher than the Luzon epicenter, which holds 70% of total  cases. I surely hope this continues. With this, I would therefore want to imagine Mindanao’s post- quarantine scenario as self sufficient, vibrant island able to feed other parts of the country. In 2018, Mindanao alone had 1,183,956 hectares of rice producing 4,469,771 metric tons, 1,439,131 hectares producing 4,092,391 tons of corn. Corn is used for animal feeds. It also produces 8.8 million metric tons of coconuts. In addition, Mindanao produced 602,026 metric tons of pork, 91,903 metric tons of beef, 358,538 metric tons of chicken, and 124,706 MT of eggs. (PSA, 2019). Truth is, Mindanao that has underproduced since its distance from markets deters it from producing too much and avoid rotting unsold produce in its ports and markets. Moreover, in this country, logistics costs account for almost a third of total retail prices. That does not include trader’s margins. The high cost of transport has deterred increased production and the livelihoods it brings. This means is that if logistics costs reduce and production volumes can increase, we may have larger harvests and food for everyone, including the meat producers complaining about the inability of their imported meats to reach the port of Manila. They can now substitute with locally farmed food. In the case of perishables like food, demand drives supply, not the other way around. We have seen it in the case of export agriculture like the banana and pineapple, where producers strive to meet the demand. In our case, having the right affordable logistics will allow buyers to meet their suppliers and together, agree to increase volumes that can both sell and produce. It is the main stumbling block which, at least in my lifetime, should be solved.

3 critical paths forward

Having stated the reality,there are three critical paths to sustaining our local economy and boosting production. Build, Build, Build (BBB), the Fiscal Incentives Review Board (FIRB), and heroic bank lending practices The governments Build, Build, Build program that will construct logistics needed like the port cold storage facilities along the Sayre highway, Maharlika Highway to Surigao, and the Iligan - Ipil highway. These will serve as marketing and storage areas of the various harvested crops and other food items that can be allocated for future local needs and be sold in Cebu and Bohol, and foreign countries needing food. Thus, BBB cannot stop. The FIRB as indicated in the CITIRA bill on the other hand, can tailor incentives to allow companies to produce for local consumption. Note that the Philippine Economic Zone Authority focuses on  incentives for exports. Incentive reforms will be needed to allow the production of necessities like soap, toothpaste and alcohol in Mindanao. We simply cannot depend on shipments of these goods from Luzon. In the face of lower policy rates and reserve requirements of the BSP, heroic bank lending practices will be needed to help borrowers, where banks and cooperatives will need to find ways to borrow and properly repay. Individually, we will need to imagine not because we fear, but because it forms part of the courage needed to counter the fear.

Godspeed Karl Chua

Mindanao has another champion in the person of newly appointed NEDA Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua. I wish him the best, and remember how he ably led special studies on Mindanao while country economist at the World Bank.