Inflation in March increased by 3.7 percent last week, up from 3.3 percent in February, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported last April 5. According to a summary table prepared by the Presidential Communications Office, rice accounts for 2.2 percent or 59 percent of this increase.
Inflation reduces purchasing power, a reality that hits poorer households harder than it affects those in higher-income brackets. 

Here’s a more detailed analysis from the PSA on the impact of inflation on the bottom 30 percent of all households: “The uptrend in the food inflation was mainly due to the slower annual decrease in vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 5.4 percent during the month from 11.7 percent annual decrease in the February 2024. In addition, faster year-on-year increases were observed in the indices of cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, at 19.8 percent in March 2024 from 18.9 percent in the previous month, and meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals at 1.9 percent from 0.9 percent.”

The year-on-year price of rice has increased by 24.4 percent, the fastest rate of increase since 2009, a period covering the Aquino III, Duterte and Marcos, Jr. administrations. The PSA has flagged that “since (the) price base for rice between January and July last year was lower, any increase in the price of the national staple could be magnified in the inflation print.” 

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel expects that “prices may stay elevated through September this year, due to concerns over El Nino’s impact on global rice supply and heightened demand for the grain that, consequently, is keeping international prices high.” 

He has assured, however, that the country’s rice supply is sufficient, such that relative price stability is realistically attainable. He cited the recent signing of a five-year rice supply agreement with Vietnam and the possibility of forging a similar arrangement with India. Nevertheless, he has warned against profiteers who might take advantage of the El Niño situation to hoard rice supply and create artificial price increases. 

According to the PSA: “Rice has a weight of 8.87 percent in the consumer basket used to determine headline inflation and an even higher at 17.87 percent share in the spending of the bottom 30 percent of income households.

Pulse Asia’s March 2024 survey reports that inflation is the Filipinos’ top and most urgent concern, according to 70 percent of all respondents. This has been the prevailing sentiment since a similar survey was conducted last December 2023. Clearly, this has been brought on by the continuing increases in the prices of rice and other staple food items, that reduces the overall purchasing power of those who are struggling in the bottom rung of the economic pyramid.

Government is expected to provide them with social safety nets, and to enable them to live more comfortably — assured of sufficiency in their basic, day-to-day needs.