MANILA, Philippines — Population density is low in the part of Negros-Cebu struck by last Monday’s earthquake, but PHIVOLCS (Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology) warns that the Marikina West Valley fault is “ripe for movement” and that thickly populated Metro Manila had better be ready for up to Intensity 7.2.  The fault runs North-South, passing San Mateo, Marikina, Pasig and Taguig.  Any movement will rattle Metro Manila.

Manila was last badly shaken on August 2, 1968.  Ruby Tower, a six-story building across from Arellano High in Santa Cruz collapsed onto a couple of hundred sleepers and the newly-built Philippine Bar Association Building on Intramuros’ Aduana Street teetered over the street where columns had given way.

Before that, the really strong 1863 and 1880 earthquakes crumbled practically all of Manila’s large stone buildings.  The Palacio del Gobernador was ruined, forcing Governor-Generals to move to Malacañang.  The Ayuntamiento’s tower collapsed in 1863 and the entire building was rebuilt after further damage in 1880.  Fort Santiago’s main building had to be replaced.  The Cathedral’s roof fell, crushing priests, choir and churchgoers.  Sturdy San Agustin Church survived both tremors but lost one of its two towers in 1880.  The Dominicans rebuilt Sto. Domingo while the Recollects decided to solve the problem for good by reconstructing San Sebastian in steel—they forgot about rust, though.

Consistent with experience in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, PHIVOLCS advises us that damage is caused by the initial and after- shocks and from fires.  Structures crumble—homes, buildings, infrastructure—crushing people and blocking streets.  Water/petroleum pipes and power lines break.  Fires start, e.g., when a spark lands on a leaking stove or LPG tank.  There are not enough fire fighters and with blocked streets; they can’t reach conflagrations where, in any case, water mains may be dry.  In San Francisco, far more damage was caused by fire than by shocks.

Areas on unstable alluvial soil will liquefy (i.e., move in waves, like water) and if La Mesa Dam breaks, even part of Bulacan will be in trouble.  There can’t be enough rescuers or equipment to dig out the buried, nor doctors and hospitals to attend to the injured.

Metro Manila could be isolated with SLEX/NLEX cracks, fallen overpasses, bridges or Skyway spans.  With fallen Pasig River bridges, vehicles can’t travel between North and South Manila.  Disabled runways or air control equipment will seal airports and slow to a trickle supplies or help from outside.  Ships might be the principal way out or in, but piers may also be damaged.  Repair won’t be immediate.

Imagine, then, the chaos with 12+ million people—many dead or homeless; panicking with raging fires; without water, power and yes, cell phones; running out of food; no place to stay; unable to leave whether for rural areas or overseas.

When things settle down, people may discover that their insurance broker did nothing but collect his commissions; that they are un- or under- insured; and/or that their insurance company did not reinsure and cannot pay the monumental payouts required.

Scary.

Comments are cordially invited, addressed to walalang@mb.com.ph.