So what’s the exit strategy for COVID going to be like?
The whole nation is waiting for the final word on whether the country – or parts of it – will be put on Alert 1. Metro Manila, for one, seems to have met all the criteria to be allowed to deescalate into the lowest alert level. In a recent press conference, Secretary of Health, Francisco Duque, cited a vaccination rate of 101.66 percent for the targetted population in the NCR. That is a big score for the 16 cities and one municipality that comprises the region.
While many eagerly await the further liberalization of COVID-related restrictions, there are some who still worry that the virus may once again mutate and that complacency on the part of the populace may result in new surges in case counts. These are very valid concerns and I believe that any exit strategy should take them into account.
Accordingly, two priorities come to mind. One, we need to very clearly define the minimum health protocols under a new normal. From the time all COVID alerts are lifted throughout the country,the wearing of masks must be kept mandatory and social distancing must be continued to be practiced for two to three months. Why? For no particular reason except that it coincides with the recommended reasonable period of time between the primary two vaccine doses and the booster shot. I use it as a convenient starting line for all of us to hit our restart buttons, especially those who are still holding out on getting vaccinated and/or boosted. A robust and sustained vaccination program is essential to preserving the protection of Filipinos against infection.
After the intervening period and the number of COVID cases remains low – or similar to other viruses like the flu–then we can allow people to choose their desired level of personal protection. Naturally, though, good hygiene must continue since this is one of the most fundamental lessons learned from the pandemic. In Japan, for example, wearing of masks was practiced even before COVID. It was a socially acceptable defense from picking-up any viruses and, just as importantly, from spreading any that we might be carrying. It was a personal choice that was embraced by Japanese society; it can be the case here, too.
The second priority is assuring the capabilities of our health system as we enter into a new normal. The Department of Health should establish the minimum levels of preparedness and put into place a robust crisis management system that takes into account all that we learned from COVID. We need to fortify our first lines of defense, such as testing, first responders and critical health care facilities. This will entail funding from government and a strong level of collaborative protocols with the private health care sector.
An essential part of stepping-up our level of health crisis preparedness is also the creation of our local capability to produce the necessary medical protective equipment and, most especially, the development of vaccines.Our battle against COVID exposed our sheer vulnerability: we were almost entirely dependent on other countries for our protection and cure. Setting-up the access to supply routes took longer than planned and caused unintended delays in the roll-out of vaccines while putting our front-liners in a precarious position due to lack of PPEs. We need a degree of self-sufficiency that allows us to quickly respond to crisis.
This takes me to the next critical point of any exit strategy. We have to get our economic house in order. During the pandemic, jobs were destroyed or lost. A good number of micro-small-and-medium-enterprises (MSME’s) had to shut down or, worse, go into bankruptcy. On a macro level, we had to resort to international borrowing to fund our COVID responses. Prior to the pandemic, the Philippines had a very healthy national debt posture. However, due to the heavy need for social welfare and health care spending, the Department of Finance and National Treasury had to resort to loans. This pushed our national debt up from 39.6 percent of GDP in 2019 to 53.9 percent in 2020. In 2021, it was expected to hit 58.1 percent. This is just under the critical mark of 60 percent that economists set as a bar.
Our economic managers need to go into overdrive in stimulating the economy while, at the same time, guarding against inflation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not helping any since it is driving oil prices up. Banks will need to activate their large sums of cash that resulted from a plummeting of loan demand and consumer spending. And, personal consumption must return in order to get GDP up again.
The indications are that we may need an exit strategy sooner than later. I am confident that the government is already on it.
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