Tropical depression Goring may remain over the Philippine Sea for the next five days, but it may strengthen the effect of the southwest monsoon and bring occasional rains to some parts of the country, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Thursday, Aug. 24.

In its 11 a.m. bulletin, PAGASA said Goring was last located 355 kilometers (km) east-northeast of Calayan, Cagayan or 300 km east of Basco, Batanes.

It is moving north-northwestward at 15 kilometers per hour (kph) with maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center and gusts of up to 70 kph.

Enhanced ‘habagat’

PAGASA said tropical depression Goring is less likely to bring heavy rainfall over the country in the next three days.

However, given the tropical cyclone’s proximity to land, any westward shift in the track forecast could bring about heavy rains over parts of the Cagayan Valley in the next three days.

The public and disaster managers are advised to continue to monitor PAGASA’s updates regarding this weather disturbance.

Moreover, starting on Sunday or Monday, the tropical depression may intensify the effect of the southwest monsoon, or “habagat,” which could lead to occasional rains over the western parts of Central and Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila.

Wind signals likely to be raised

PAGASA said the current forecast scenario indicates that the hoisting of tropical cyclone wind signals over some areas of Northern Luzon may begin Thursday evening or Friday, Aug. 25, in anticipation of the onset of Goring’s severe winds.

“However, the hoisting may happen earlier should there be changes in the forecast scenario,” it pointed out.

PAGASA also warned that the possible enhancement of the southwest monsoon could cause gusty conditions beginning on Sunday or Monday, Aug. 27 or 28, over most of Southern Luzon and Visayas, as well as portions of Caraga.

“The gusty conditions are more likely in coastal and upland or mountainous areas exposed to winds,” it said.

‘Looping track’

Weather specialist Loriedin Dela Cruz-Galicia said Goring may remain over the Philippine Sea for the next five days, but a possible landfall over the islands of extreme Northern Luzon is not ruled out.

Dela Cruz-Galicia explained that a high-pressure area near Japan is influencing the tropical depression’s “looping track.”

PAGASA said Goring may turn southward while over the waters off the eastern coast of Cagayan Valley after a period of generally northwestward movement in the next 12 hours.

“Over the next five days, the tropical cyclone will follow a generally looping track and may likely return to a more northward movement by late Monday or Tuesday (Aug. 29),” it said.

Goring may also gradually intensify during the forecast period, reaching tropical storm status Thursday night or early Friday morning.

During the southward segment of its looping track, it could be upgraded to a typhoon by Sunday.

“While current intensity forecast indicate the progression towards typhoon category, the inherent volatility of attaining super typhoon category remains a possibility,” PAGASA said.