#MINDANAO By JOHN TRIA John Tria I  believe its just too obvious our urban centers are the infection hotspots, and the likely place for second waves of infection after curves are flattened and regional level measures put in place to try to keep it that way. The uncertainty hanging over countries that have successfully flattened the curve is the possibility of new waves, reinfections, unknowns, while we wait for a vaccine or at least a consistent treatment protocol which can help people regain the confidence to live and work despite the threat being present — a flattened curve remaining flat. It will require physical distance coupled with standards of work and economic activity that can spur growth in small circles and communities, meeting basic needs and requirements for sustaining life. Now comes the Balik Probinsya proposal. Proposed by Senator Bong Go, it is a necessity if we are to seriously decongest our cities and spread the population into many areas that are uninhabited, spreading economic growth in the process, and allowing dwellings with safe, healthy distance. It is also needed to ensure our country’s economic survival, since the fall in our GDP in the first quarter is due in great part to the concentration of our economic growth in just three of the most congested regions — NCR, Calabarzon and Central Luzon — already reeling from the economic standstill of the Taal Volcano eruption, even more under quarantine. Over the last 60 years, we have put most of our economic eggs in this one basket — where 70% of all our COVID cases reside. It may sound wierd to Metro Manila residents, but there are large swaths of uninhabited, uncultivated, fertile, typhoon-free lands in Mindanao. Cultivating these will create the food surpluses that many economists, including the Ateneo de Manila group propose. The challenge is creating the ideal climate for productive, peaceful, and safe living, particularly gainful employment that can be achieved by distributing industries as we have written about before. Three areas for further study will be needed. The first is food supply. The Department of Agriculture and the Agricultural Credit Policy Council’s new programs and credit facilities can fund measures to boost crop production in these new areas to provide buffers in foods supply and livelihoods for new residents. Monitoring implementation results will be needed. Can new technologies like drones and satellite imagery help us check whether crops are grown well and harvested on time? I believe so. The second is distributing industry. Business incentives for distributing industries for making local products that people need will need to be pushed, and lower taxes from the CITIRA law, and the Fiscal Incentives Review Board will be needed, since the “traditional” incentives are often reserved for export-oriented industries, and often foreign companies, as indicated in the EPZA Law of 1972 and the revised PEZA Charter of 1994 — which subject local production to taxes and duties. We can study these incentive structures. The third area will be infrastructure. Plugging the 1.5 million housing backlog, roads and bridges as well as food storage and logistics systems will be necessary for these industries to relocate and eventually sustain production, livelihoods and new, safe dwellings in these uninhabited areas. Because of this I have always argued  that we cannot abandon “Build, Build, Build” entirely. These three areas of study will hopefully provide greater impetus to the Balik Probinsya program. We hope to sustain this discussion further. For reactions: facebook.com/johntriapage