Manila mayoralty  candidate Isko  Moreno was reported last Thursday as leading his two opponents –Mayor Joseph Estrada and former Mayor Alfredo Lim—with 45.28 percent of those polled.

 The very next day,  Friday,  Mayor Estrada  came up wih the results of another survey, indicating that  he was leading  in  the campaign with 45.9 percent, followed by Moreno and Lim.

 On  Saturday,  former Mayor Lim said only that he expects a fair election  and that he would reclaim his old post  at the Manila City Hall.  He said President  Duterte will not allow cheating to take place.

The  conflicting reports on survey results recall efforts in 2001 to ban the publication of such reports. Congress  passed in February that year a Fair Election Act which included  a ban  on the publication  of survey results 15 days  before a national election and seven days before a local one.

Those  advocating  the ban  said  pre-election surveys unduly affect the prospects of certain candidates. But the Supreme Court  nullified Section 5.4 of  the act as unconstitutional for violating freedom of expression as provided in the Constitution.

The  Social Weather Stations said  that  that the real   influence of pre-election surveys  is not on the decision of the voters, but rather on the mobilization of funds, manpower, and other resources for a candidate’s campaign.

We are now in the middle of the election campaign for the midterm elections  on May 13. In the national senatorial election,  some  of the survey leaders have remained steady at the top of the list, with some others reported  zooming up  from the lower ranks.  In  the local elections for governor, mayor, and other local government officials,  we can expect candidates coming up with their respective  surveys, all claiming  big leads in the campaign.

Surveying is a scientific  process  that only a well-qualified  organization can properly undertake. It involves the proper gathering of a sample that truly reflects the composition of the total  voting population  or  universe.  The wording of the question asked of those in  the  sample can affect their answers. The  bearing  of the questioner  can likewise affect  a respondent’s answer, in line with the tendency of Filipinos to want  to  please or, conversely, to avoid incurring some powerful official’s displeasure.

But,  as  the Supreme Court ruled in 2001, this is no reason  to ban their publication. All statements  and  claims  of  candidates are covered  by the constitutional  provision  of  freedom of expression.

We  believe the Filipino voter  is capable of distinguishing  between legitimate claims and fake ones, including survey results. Thus, in the conflicting claims of two Manila  mayoral  candidates, the people will ultimately decide which  to believe. Very likely, they will simply  stick with their favorite candidate, win or lose, survey winner or not.