the latest happenings in town in the last few weeks are confusingly rational, depending on where the advocate or critic or avid observer is perched.
On one hand, government officials are obviously elated, and crowing like the roosters of St. Peter, that the benefits of economic recovery and the passage of revenue-raising tax bills, which will reduce the budget deficit and improve government cash flows, will now enable the administration of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to move on from her phase one fiscal and economic reform program to phase two of the President’s social reforms which presumably includes, apart from education, housing, water, Philhealth, and computer in every schoolroom, and others, the current "all-out war against jueteng" and "corruption," no matter who gets hurt if we heard it right from official pronouncements.
From the perspective of the "poor," who claim to constitute nearly half of the nearly 85 million population, their lot has not improved with the socalled fiscal reforms, and their lives may actually be deteriorating together with inflation, escalating fuel prices, and worsening unemployment.
Both perspectives have their valid advocates but the perception gap is widening.
Moreover, the illegal numbers game, or "jueteng" can neither be eradicated, similarly with prostitution and corruption, nor legitimized.
"Jueteng" can only be reduced or minimized while awaiting economic prosperity and full employment.
The fact of the matter is that "jueteng" is labor-intensive with an income and labor multiplier effect especially among the poor who also constitute the majority of "bettors" in the "last-2" gaming industry. "Jueteng" is the poor’s hope of instant gratification.
Further, unnoticed by the bleeding hearts, "jueteng" today and casino gambling are more rampant than in previous administrations.
Indeed, while the government of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has correctly anchored and promised its economic recovery program, reduction in the budgetary deficit, and expansion of social services, on the passage and enactment of revenue-enhancing tax bills and fiscal reforms in cooperation with Congress, their "side effects," so to speak, have yet to be evaluated, quantified, and reconciled.
That is, the soon to be signed comprehensive VAT law even at the existing 10 percent rate, and expanded coverage, will have the effect of buckshot blasts from a shotgun that will benefit government coffers but whose ramifications and incremental cost may not be welcomed by the citizenry and affected businessmen.
Thus, with the higher corporate income tax rate from 32 percent to 35 percent, inflation, stricter implementation of VAT, higher raw material prices, higher fuel prices, a depreciated peso adversely affecting companies with dollardenominated debts or imported equipment and inputs, and higher demand for wages, the first impulse of business is to lay off workers, forcibly retire employees, or be forced to close shop.
Hence, these scenarios directly affect the marginal citizens which is not mitigated by the government’s penchant for declaring "holiday economics" at the drop of a hat which adversely affects the piece worker, the daily wage workers, the passenger jeepneys, the sampaguita vendors, and other marginalized citizens during long weekends while pampering business concerns and the rich who needlessly get spared from paying OT and holiday benefits while sunning themselves at the beach or abroad.
Last, but not least, there is no saving grace when all prices seem to be going up while freezing the minimum wage when labor, like any other commodity, must be determined by supply and demand, and not by rigid legislation.
When all is said and done, the valiant efforts, hard work, and sincere endeavors of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to turn the country around, deliver on the promised pledges, curb corruption, eradicate "jueteng," and bring about full employment, are proving to be more difficult to achieve than expected. It is also increasingly more frustrating with the entry of politically motivated scandals that cannot be validated or substantiated other than drive away potential investors, and increase confusion among the people.
The name of the game is credibility.
You be the judge. Email: hrrv@edsamail.com.ph.
