Edgardo J. Angara
THE Philippines is so far free from avian flu, but this is no time to be complacent. The world’s health experts have issued dire warnings about a bird flu pandemic anytime soon and many of the rich and advanced countries are now seriously making preparations to both prevent and cope with the imminent catastrophe.
Dr. David Nabarro, the United Nations coordinator for avian and human influenza, likens the scenario of an avian flu pandemic to "a combination of global warming and HIV/AIDS 10 times faster than it’s currently running." He estimates its toll to be "between 5-150 million people" depending on how appropriate the affected countries’ responses would be.
Dr. Hitoshi Oshitani, the World Health Organization’s expert on Asian communicable diseases who recently led the battle against SARS, said that compared to bird flu, SARS was an easy virus to contain. He now spearheads the fight against avian flu in Asia.
The deadliest avian flu pandemic occurred between 1918 and 1919. Dubbed "Spanish flu," the virus infected some 8 million people in Spain. On a worldwide scale, the 18-month pandemic claimed some 25-50 million lives.
More recent bird flu pandemics occurred in 1957 and 1968, but with much lesser human casualties. But since 2003, a bird flu strain code-named H5N1 has already killed at least 60 people, mostly poultry workers, in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia. Although H5N1 does not pass between humans, experts agree that it could mutate into another strain against which people have no immunity.
At present, no specific vaccine can prevent the spread of avian flu among humans. Vaccines are still in the development stage. The United States, which has already initiated bold moves to confront the foreseen bird flu pandemic, plans to stockpile 4.3 million courses of the anti-viral Tamiflu until the end of the year. Such supply, however, is only enough for a very small fraction of its population.
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, says nobody knows how much time remains to prepare for a pandemic. But he is certain that if it happens soon, there will be little anyone can do. "There will be lots of collateral damage. We’re going to run out of food and medication. There’s the potential for unrest and security concerns. We’re going to find a very different world," says Osterholm.
We have a
R150 -billion poultry industry that employs 300,000 workers and they are in the first line of danger in this chilling scenario. Among the government’s early precautionary measures against bird flu has been a strict ban on poultry imports from at least 11 affected countries. But the cool autumn months of September to November normally drive migratory birds — suspected to be carriers of the bird flu virus — from the temperate Asian countries to tropical countries like the Philippines. Bird flu in Romania and Turkey was traced to migratory birds from Asia.
Bird migration is beyond our control. Identified as most vulnerable to bird migration are the Liguasan Marsh along the periphery of Maguindanao, North Cotabato and Sultan Kudarat and the Candaba swamps in Pampanga.
Let us remain calm. We should think of creative ways to isolate our local birds from foreign flocks. A quick response team, composed of health experts and allied medical workers, should immediately be organized and trained on how to handle a pandemic situation. We must also start stockpiling our own supply of medicines and positioning them, along with the necessary equipment and logistics, in identified bird flu prone areas. More importantly, the government must undertake a massive information campaign on how to detect and handle the disease, if it ever occurs.
What we have implemented and applying the lessons we have learned in coping with SARS could help us a lot in handling the bird flu.
E-mail: edgardo_angara@hotmail.com 
