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PHILGIFTS.COM



 


 
BoP surplus seen $900 M in 2005

   

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas expects higher balance of payment surplus of $900 million this year against forecast of $853 million.

The BoP is a summary of the country’s transactions with the rest of the world and includes exports less imports, net portfolio and equity investments, income and other transfers. Earlier in the year the central bank adjusted its original BoP target from $464 million after revisions in its accounting formula.

The emerging end-December surplus is attributed to higher foreign currency flows from Filipino migrant workers’ remittances and government borrowings, which boost dollar reserves.

As of September the BSP said the country’s excess to BoP has reached $2.73 billion — that is almost $1 billion for the monthly surplus alone.

"The $2.73 billion (will be adjusted lower) due to outflows and debt servicing both by the National Government and the BSP. It will decline," BSP Governor Amando M. Tetangco Jr. said. "But we expect to exceed the $853 million surplus target by the end of the year," he added.

Tetangco said for now the central bank is keeping the BoP position (of $853 million for the year) although they expect higher surplus. "We’re currently adjusting components of the BoP, including changes in exports, OFW remittances, exports and imports and in the capital accounts. But the BoP position is still the same," the BSP chief explained.

The latest data on OFW monies is $7 billion as of September while gross international reserves is at $18.6 billion, the highest this year.

Last August, the BSP incorporated some changes in the BoP statistics, which reflects the upward adjustments in the imports of goods.

The BSP said the previously released estimates of current account balance for 2003 and 2004 and first quarter of 2005 already factored in the impact of a higher import number.

The central bank also said that it has alerted the market as early as March of its adoption in the BoP statistics of higher import numbers than were previously reported by the National Statistics Office.

The revision was based on the preliminary estimates using the methodology agreed upon by the Inter-Agency Committee on Trade Statistics. The same methodology was applied in adjusting the 2005 first quarter imports data.

Bu the central bank said the final report by the NSO revealed a lower adjustment to imports for 20032004 than the preliminary estimates. "Consequently trade balance and current account balance would turn out to be more favorable than the initial estimates by $278 million and $766 million for 2003 and 2004, respectively," the BSP said.

This means that the current account surplus would now be higher from $1.396 billion and $2 billion to $1.674 billion and P2.84 billion for 2003 and 2004, respectively.





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