DEFINITELY, it is still mild but we should have good times for the next three or five years. Unless of course our politicians mess it up. They are looking for truth, forgetting the good of the people. As the saying goes, "The truth will make you free but in the mean time it will make you miserable."
In classical Keynesian macro-economics the four elements that push and economy are: (CIGF) consumption, investments, government, and foreign exports. Consumption is high, with remittances and call centers giving the extra push. The new investments are the mining ventures, companies pouring in money to start up the gold and nickel mines that have been there for centuries while our people starved during the past decades.
But it is housing and high-rise buildings that will be the sign of a really booming economy. Many are now finishing the buildings left unfinished during the past crisis. It means that people are now interested in renting more office space. The boom will be in progress when they start to excavate foundations for new high rises. This is not yet the case. Unless corruption screws the economy again, this will be the case in a few more years.
There have been no new hotels or very few built in the last ten years. The existing ones are crammed to capacity. With the coming Peking Olympics and in case we entice only five percent of their visitors to pass by the Philippines, we will have no place to house them.
National government projects have been on a standstill, because it has no money but with the increased VAT it may be able to do some of the infrastructures that need to be done like schoolbuildings and bridges. There has been some work on the local government level with many of them building new palatial municipal halls. But even there, they could be bolder and build tourist facilities and more roads. So on the government level there should be activity to push the economy.
On the foreign export side our manufactures are doing poorly but once the mines are operating we should have some hefty export income. On the intangibles OFWs are now remitting over 12 billion USD every year.
On the investment side, investments in retailing is quite high and also in agriculture like rubber, mango, bananas and other high-value crops. Rubber for example. For an investment of about
R60,000 a hectare the investor should make a return of about R20,000 per year net beginning the fifth year. The lowly banana is the present darling for agricultural investment.
The hot money is also coming in again in the stock market. This has its pros and cons. They have seen that with all the focus on the negative, the economy has been stable in spite of scandals. People are starting to invest again as measured by the increased loans made by the banks and the liquidation of non-performing assets. Employment is picking up evidenced by just measuring the lower number of job applicants and the pirating of good employees. But in the end, it is the housing and real estate development that will trigger a real boom. On all counts of the CIGF Keynesian factors we are doing well and should be doing better in the next few years.
Of course we are still left with the problem of the gap between the right and the poor. But that is another matter. We are addressing it somewhat with the improvement in skills training and microfinance entrepreneurship. For some a factor that will help bridge the gap and alleviate poverty are the (OFWs) overseas Filipino workers. Many but not too many yet have substantial savings and are investing.
<emeterio_barcelon@yahoo .com) 
