728-million "agri fund scam" having suspiciously vanished, the man in the middle, former Agriculture Undersecretary Jocelyn "Joc-Joc" Bolante, nonchalantly deplaned the other day aboard a Philippine Airlines flight from Los Angeles into the benign care and shelter of Malacañang Palace.
Without documents to work with, opposition and Congress leaders will be hard put to prove that agri fertilizer funds were diverted and used to ensure the electoral victory of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in the 2004 polls.
With these developments, and economic uptick to boot, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is understandably euphoric and grinning from ear to ear.
Truth to tell, who should get the credit for the economic turnaround? Is sustainable growth at hand? Who was mainly responsible for the economic recovery?
Or, is it all merely an economic aberration that may be fleeting, and could deteriorate at any time?
Thus, it is presumptuous for Press Secretary Ignacio Bunye, and other apologists, to single out President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as the principal factor in the turnaround.
The fact of the matter is that the seeming economic rebound is due to several factors several of which cannot be credited to the administration or President Arroyo.
First, the bulk of foreign exchange inflows came from OFW remittances estimated at US$10 billion to US$12 billion for 2005 which nearly equals the gross electronics exports for three quarters of which only 20 percent of every $1 of electronics exported is retained within the country. That is, the much maligned and abused OFWs have been the main source of foreign exchange in 2005.
Further, as winter sets in, Philippine tourism tends to perk up at this time of year as South Korean golfers, Japanese honeymooners, and mainland Chinese visitors, and others try to escape from their harsh winters to bask in the sun, and enjoy the powdery beaches of Boracay, Panglao, Palawan, and elsewhere, and take advantage of the depreciated currency exchange rate, and bargain prices, despite inadequate tourism infrastructure and poor security for tourists.
Second, the nation had been spared from runaway inflation, social unrests, and greater political turmoil by the global decline and easing of international crude oil prices whose continuous upward trend would have caused horrendous economic dislocation to the economy.
Incidentally, with the sudden appreciation of the peso, the cost of import should logically be cheaper, and debt servicing of the foreign debt stock should be lower with a stronger peso-dollar exchange rate. These are the upsides of a stronger peso.
Third, political destabilization activities, except sporadic coup rumors, have eased up resulting in a stronger presidency, and increasing investor confidence.
For these reasons, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, as the leader of the nation, could partly share in the euphoria of economic rebound, but the champions of the economic recovery are the men and women, boys and girls of the Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) who have singlehandedly kept the foreign exchange revenues flowing in when these hard currencies were needed most, especially during the critical period when President Arroyo nearly painted herself politically into a corner.
On the other hand, the OFW remittances are also subject to external conditions beyond our control whose future opportunities depend on world peace and tranquility.
The fact of the matter is that, on the downside, we do not have the industrial backbone, the infrastructures, the high savings rate, the incorruptibility of public officials, and the international competitiveness, except in labor, which are the main factors in sustainable economic growth, and not merely the temporary economic remission as in cancer, or Big C.
Hence, "Truth" is not only tough, as tersely put by legal luminary and author Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, but truth is also
