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AN OSCAR PRIMER: 78th Academy Awards forecasts
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By KAYE VILLAGOMEZ

Three out of the five Best Film nominations touched and tackled gender issues ("Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," and "Transamerica"); two of them anchored on media and public responsibility ("Good Night, and Good Luck" and again "Capote"); one centered on the politics of racism ("Crash"); and the last one based on the terrorism accounts in the 1972 Olympics ("Munich").

It’s a gender–sensitive Oscar with more than half of its best films roster acknowledging the bodies of work from screenwriters who turned in homosexuality storylines.

Unlike previous years where musicals and comedies stood a chance ("Moulin Rouge" and "Chicago"), Oscar snubbed the genre save for major acting nominations of Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon for "Walk the Line."

As far as new Oscar feats are concerned, here are the honorees: One, all five directors of best picture candidates are up for the best director plum. It had not been the case since Oscar 1981. Two, George Clooney’s achievement goes down the Oscar history as he is nominated best director for "Good Night, and Good Luck" and best supporting actor for "Syriana." And three, Since the CGI (computer generated imagery) breakthrough in 2001, animations imploring the technology are always nominated in the best animation category. None of the CGI–cartoons made it in this year’s Oscar line–up of Best Animated Feature Film.

Oscars forecasts

According to oscars.about.com’s Jurgen Fauth and Marcy Dermansky, below are the expected outcome of Wednesday’s Oscars in the five major awards categories:

Nominated for the best actress are Judi Dench for "Mrs. Henderson Presents," Felicity Huffman for "Transamerica," Keira Knightley for "Pride & Prejudice," Charlize Theron for "North Country," and Reese Witherspoon for "Walk the Line."

Contrary to popular bets on Felicity Huffman, it’s Reese Witherspoon who should walk away with the Oscar.

Philip Seymour Hoffman for "Capote" is a runaway winner. So other nominees Terrence Howard for "Hustle & Flow," Heath Ledger for "Brokeback Mountain," Joaquin Phoenix for "Walk the Line," and David Strathairn for "Good Night, and Good Luck" should relish the part where the presentor announces their names.

For the best Supporting Actor, listed are George Clooney for "Syriana," Matt Dillon for "Crash," Paul Giamatti for "Cinderella Man," Jake Gyllenhaal for "Brokeback Mountain," and William Hurt for "A History of Violence."

Matt Dillon is the favorite but William Hurt is the worthiest nominee.

For the Best Supporting Actress, it’s a toss among Amy Adams for "Junebug," Catherine Keener for "Capote," Frances McDormand for "North Country," Rachel Weisz for "The Constant Gardener," and Michelle Williams for "Brokeback Mountain."

Michelle Williams is the dark horse but Rachel Weisz and the "heart and should of ‘The Constant Garderner’" should win.

For Best Film: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," and "Munich."

"Brokeback Mountain" will bring it home but about.oscar.com’s worthiest nominee is "Munich."

The battle for Best Director includes Ang Lee for "Brokeback Mountain," Bennett Miller for "Capote," Paul Haggis for "Crash," George Clooney for "Good Night, and Good Luck," and Steven Spielberg for "Munich."

Ang Lee will most likely get the statue, though Steven Spielberg stands a fight.

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