Profit-taking expected before Easter holidays
While the market is on the upward trend, the upcoming Easter holidays may dampen investor accumulation with profit-taking expected ahead of the long vacation.
BPI Securities noted that the market maintained its climb, posting a 15-point gain to close above the 2200 resistance level.
"All market indicators were positive, high volumes, broad-based buying, and higher foreign net buying," says BPI Securities.
Recent buying strength has been premised on an uneventful political landscape, continuing strength in economic and corporate prospects, and higher foreign inflows. Resistance at 2270 is the market’s next target.
BPI Securities also noted that the market has been consolidating since last year and the break of the 2200 psychological resistance suggests strength.
The next resistance range is 2270 to 2300.
"The Phisix, however, needs to sustain the break of 2200 level next week to suggest strength at this level. If it closes below 2200 next week, this might mean the market needs to consolidate between 2172 and 2200," says BPI.
AB Capital Securities says there is a reason to celebrate in the local equities market.
"Seasonal quarter ending window dressing has helped local share prices achieve new highs. The PHISIX easily broke the neckline resistance of its bullish inverted head and shoulder formation last week."
Based on the measuring principle applied to the bullish formation, the price target for the move after the breakout is around 2,240 to 2,250, says AB Capital.
"For the near term, going beyond the 2,250 level maybe pushing the market a bit too far too early. If it reaches the target level of 2,250 this week, the PHISIX will already be at the upper band resistance of its 6-month uptrend channel."
A normal short-term profit taking cycle might follow with support seen at the old neckline resistance of 2,160, says AB Capital.
"There is also a negative divergence between the Phisix and its relative strength index. It should be cautioned, however, that the bearish RSI divergence in itself is not a sell signal."
AB Capital advised traders to wait for a signal such as a moving average crossover or break of the bullish trend line, before taking action.
"The bulls will be tested next week as prospects of higher interest rates in the United States will return to haunt investors."
Even as the local market seem to have been ignoring the strong possibility of another Fed rate hike, it seems likely that it will turn cautious as the Fed meets on Wednesday (Thursday Manila time).
Renewed worries over the outlook for interest rates came after US government bond yields recently rose to multi-year highs, says AB Capital. (EHL)
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