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Stock trading seen to slacken during the Lenten holiday break
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By EDU H. LOPEZ

Trading is expected to continue to weaken over the next few trading days, given the shorter trading week due to the extended holiday break.

BPI Securities says noted that the market closed slightly lower last Friday, down by 3 points; managing to recover most of the day’s loss. The pullback was not unexpected given the market’s strong gains.

The market tried to break out of its main resistance level of 2,200 but seemed to be lacking in conviction.

AB Capital Securities expects the market would be bullish this year on the back of the improving fiscal position and favorable corporate fundamentals.

"However, we believe that things should slow down before it can truly get better. The implementation of higher taxes does have its short term negative effects on consumer spending and corporate profits."

For this holiday shortened holy week, AB Capital Securities sees no major catalyst to drive share prices.

"With first-quarter earnings season not due till the end of the month, there is very little that can be considered as market moving."

Resistance on the new main composite index is seen at the 2,250 level, the target of a recent inverted head and shoulder breakout.

AB Capital also expects the market would correct on or before it hits the said resistance. And the catalyst that could induce profit taking will be earnings jitters.

Earnings growth will be hard pressed to duplicate the growth of recent years due to higher taxes, says AB Capital.

"Another factor that could lead to some weakness in the short term is the rising cost of oil and the growing longer term concern of peak oil."

Crude oil prices soared to its highest in 3.5 months amid worries about possible supply disruptions.

Mining stocks may benefit from the inflationary concerns as commodity prices continue to rise to record highs, says AB Capital Securities.

Copper, gold and silver posted record-breaking prices last week as funds continued to beef up positions on metals.

The market is likely to be flat during the Holy Week when this largely Roman Catholic nation will be observing religious holidays, said Eric Claudio of Unicapital Securities.

"Many people are out of town. Their minds are elsewhere so there is a natural tendency for a lower volume of transactions," he remarked.

"It will definitely be a listless three-day trading week," said Astro del Castillo of First Grade Holdings.

April 13 to 16 are holidays but many Filipinos will be taking the whole week off. Trade resumes on Easter Monday.

Claudio remarked that with so few in the market, it will be possible for a few people to influence the direction.

"It might be just one or two big buyers ... or one or two big sellers. Their influence will be generally stronger unlike on a regular week," he said.

Aside from the Easter holidays, Claudio said prospects look good.

"Local fundamentals seem to be firm enough. You have corporate results which tend to be on the positive side."

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