Madel R. Sabater
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) yesterday disclosed that tropical cyclone "Butchoy" (international name: Rammasun) may trigger the onset of the rainy season next week if it continues to dump heavy rains in the country as it further intensified into a typhoon from an "intense tropical storm" category yesterday afternoon.
PAGASA senior weather specialist Robert Sawi, in a phone interview, said "Butchoy" is far from making landfall due to its northward movement.
"So far, the remaining days of the week will be rainy for Visayas and Mindanao," Sawi said, adding that Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila, must also expect heavy rains by next week as an effect of "Butchoy."
Sawi explained that the heavy rains experienced in the afternoons and evenings in some parts of the country, including Metro Manila, is just a local convection and not the start of the rainy season.
Certain criteria must be met before the weather bureau announces the onset of the rainy season. These include continuous rains recorded in eight weather stations in the western seaboards of Luzon and the Visayas, including Laoag, Vigan, Dagupan, Iba, Catanduanes, Iloilo, and Mindoro.
The rains recorded must total to 25 millimeters for at least five consecutive days. The prevailing winds should also be coming from the southwest or westward, Sawi explained.
"As of now, wala pang clear declaration (of the onset of the rainy season) kasi hindi pa nami-meet yung criteria (based on) monitoring," Sawi disclosed.
However, he said that with rains expected in Luzon by early next week, continuous rains may likely trigger the onset of the rainy season.
One or two tropical cyclones are expected for May, "Butchoy" being the first for this month and the second for the year.
"Butchoy" started out as a low pressure area (LPA) last May 5 and intensified into a tropical depression on May 7. It further intensified into a tropical storm late Wednesday night and intensified to typhoon category yesterday afternoon.
It is expected to be inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) until Monday evening.
As of 2 p.m. yesterday, the center of typhoon "Butchoy" was located some 650 kms east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, packing winds of 120 kph near the center and gusts of up to 150 kph. It was moving northward at a speed of 19 kph.
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