The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) is confident that the growth momentum will continue this year and the gross domestic product (GDP) would not fall below the low-end target of 3.7 percent for 2009.

The credit crunch started in September 2008 and hit hard in October, November and December. Hence, the fourth quarter of 2008 was already in the crisis era, yet the economy still grew by 4.5 percent last year, says Dennis Arroyo, NEDA director for national policy and planning.

The 2009 GDP target range of 3.7 to 4.7 percent assumed merchandise export growth of 1 to 3 percent. He stressed that in the fourth quarter of last year, exports growth was at negative 9.2 percent.

One would have expected the economy to post growth lower than 3.7. But what happened was that manufacturing for the domestic market compensated for the drop in exports, said Arroyo.

Manufacturing growth accelerated to 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. The growth was buoyed by food manufacturing, beverage, chemicals and chemical products.

Meanwhile for agriculture, fishery and forestry, the NEDA’s planning head expects fertilizer as well as fuel prices to go down which will boost agriculture and help fisheries, in particular.

Arroyo expects more delays in mining projects due to hesitance to invest due to the global crisis. Manufacturing, he said, will be dragged by exports but eventually will shift for the domestic economy. There will also be a big public construction push, positive response from private construction, power sector reforms and expansion of water service areas.