July inflation eases to 22-yr low at 1.5%; eyes on BSP rate cut

July 7, 2009, 5:01pm

Inflation in the Philippines eased to its lowest in 22 years in June as oil and commodity prices stayed off their record levels in the year-earlier period, virtually assuring the central bank will deliver another rate cut at its policy meeting tomorrow.

The National Statistics Office said yesterday the consumer price index, the country's main barometer of inflation, rose 1.5% in June from a year earlier, compared with 3.3% in May, well within the central bank's forecast of a range of 1.1%-2.1%.

The latest reading fell below the 1.75% median forecast of economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires, and marked the index's slowest climb since April 1987's 1.0%.

The index rose 0.6% from May due to increases in fuel prices.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco said the June data were in line with the central bank's projected inflation for this year and 2010, "and gives the BSP room to ease (policy) further."

"Current assessments show risks to inflation remain tilted towards the downside," said Tetangco in a text message. "Nevertheless, we are mindful of global and domestic financial and real sector developments, particularly the actions of central banks in the major economies to unwind prior liquidity and credit-easing measures."

Economists are unanimous in saying the central bank will pare policy rates by at least 25 basis points to bring overnight rate to 4.0% for borrowing and 6.0% for lending. They, however, differ on whether the likely rate reduction on Thursday will be the last in the current loosening cycle.