IMF paper warns budget deficits risk pushing interest rates upward
WASHINGTON, August 1 (Reuters) – Countries that put in place big spending programs to counter the financial crisis need to quickly set out strategies for reeling in their debt, a staff paper by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.
''Without such strategies, rising interest rates and risk premiums could erode the effectiveness of stimulus measures,'' the paper said. ''Few countries have yet articulated the needed medium-term policies in adequate details.''
It said the global crisis was having ''a dramatic impact on fiscal positions around the world,'' likely to push deficits of Group of 20 countries up by about 5-1/2 percent of gross domestic product above pre-crisis levels in 2007.
The IMF papers said while fiscal balances likely will strengthen over the medium term, once an economic recovery is established, deficits are likely to remain well above their 2007 levels.
In advanced economies, it said public debt will keep rising as costs for aging populations and health care increase. ''Debt ratios in the G-20 countries as a whole are expected to stabilize at around 85 percent of GDP between 2010 and 2014, about 23 percentage points above the pre-crisis level,'' the paper said.
It said policy-makers should keep stimulus measures in place until a recovery is established but then be prepared to make adjustments to bring debt under control. ''At this stage, with recovery not yet under way (and likely to occur at different times in different countries) fiscal adjustment is premature,'' the IMF paper said.
In particular, it said that to preserve fiscal solvency, countries will need ''a clear strategy to contain aging-related spending,'' especially in advanced economies where pensions and health care are likely to take up increasing portions of public finances.


