Myanmar’s hesitancy over Suu Kyi is self-serving — analysts
BANGKOK — Myanmar’s junta showed rare concern for foreign opinion by delaying the Aung San Suu Kyi verdict, but only because it wants to minimize the fallout while pursuing its hard line against her, analysts said.
The postponement of the judgment until August 11 is a sign that normally intransigent military ruler Than Shwe is at least partly considering the domestic and international uproar a long jail term would provoke, they said.
But the regime’s apparent indecision over the trial is about balancing its determination to have Suu Kyi locked up during elections next year with its desire to give the trial a veneer of legitimacy abroad, analysts added.
“It’s international pressure and they’re worried about domestic anger,’’ Thailand-based Myanmar analyst and academic Win Min told AFP.
Since Suu Kyi was charged in mid-May with breaching the terms of her house arrest after an American man swam uninvited to her house, a trial that was expected to last a few days has become a two-and-a-half-month farrago.
The court has repeatedly put off hearings — helped by frequent appeals by Suu Kyi’s defence team — and Friday said it would not hand down a verdict as expected but would pass judgment later this month instead.
Suu Kyi’s lawyers hailed the delay as a sign that the judges have “serious legal problems.’’
Win Min said domestic anger over the case was worrying the authorities, as evidenced by recent editorials in Myanmar’s state media, which warned people against demonstrating in case of a guilty verdict.
With critics accusing the junta of using the charges against her as an excuse to keep her behind bars during the 2010 elections promised by the ruling generals, the international community has meanwhile kept up the pressure.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called, during a regional meeting in Thailand last month, for Suu Kyi’s release and also held out to Myanmar the carrot of possible US investment.
UN chief Ban Ki-moon visited Myanmar last month, when Than Shwe refused to let him see Suu Kyi, and in a meeting with Myanmar’s UN ambassador on Thursday Ban pressed for the Nobel Laureate’s release, a spokesman said.
The last time Myanmar bowed to international pressure was in 2008, when it allowed in foreign aid for victims of Cyclone Nargis following another trip by Ban.
But it is close ally China that is likely to have the most sway in the Suu Kyi case — and analysts said Beijing has so far avoided giving overt support with its usual statements that the country’s internal affairs are its own business.
“There could be pressure from China. If China said this was an internal matter they (Myanmar’s leadership) would make the (verdict) as they like,’’ Win Min said.
But while the junta was keen to dampen the international outrage, its intentions towards the woman it has kept in detention for nearly 14 of the last 20 years remained the same, said Benjamin Zawacki of Amnesty International.

