Experts reviewing agriculture growth figures for the first quarter have expressed doubt as to the veracity of the increases in yield and value, particularly for crops.

A former top official of the Department of Agriculture said it is rather strange how palay production
increased by 5.13 percent for the quarter, believing the figure to be anywhere from only 2.5 percent to 2.9 percent.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the same official explained that historically, for palay production to keep up with the increase in population, the growth figure should be double the population growth rate.

"If the population growth rate is 2.3 percent, the quarterly growth should be 4.6 percent," he added.

On the other hand, the same expert explained that the per capita consumption figure used in the DA report, 120 kilos, is on the high side.

"It is more appropriate to place the per capita consumption anywhere from 80 kilos to 90 kilos," the source added.

In its quarterly report, the DA said palay production was 5.13 percent higher at 3.94 million metric tons (MMT) from the 3.74 MMT registered for the same period last year.

Another plant breeder noted that the rice consumption threshold is significantly high and this has been used historically to justify higher importations.

Officially, the National Food Authority bases its annual import projections on the 10 percent output deficit.

Last year, NFA imported 2.3 MMT of rice but this year, the agency said it will import only 2.25 MMT, with the latest shipment scheduled to arrive last Friday.

The plant breeder said growth rate for the first semester is traditionally lower than the main cropping
season, and the cold spell that stunted the growth of high yield rice varieties and the impact of typhoons that visited the country quite early should have reduced output.

He noted that the figure could change drastically for the second quarter since Typhoons Dante and Emong destroyed rice stands in Northern Luzon, with the latter battering the rice-growing towns of Pangasinan like Alaminos City and Anda.

Alaminos has about 10 percent of its land area devoted to growing organic rice, which Mayor Hernani Braganza espouses.

DA actually has not come up with any damage report on Dante and Emong, with Undersecretary Jesus Emmanuel Paras reportedly stumped by the excessive damage to rice growing areas.

A review has been made to validate the same assessment, DA officials said.