As I started my business trip to Indonesia on July 18, 2009, just a day after the deadly bombings of the Ritz Carlton and Marriott Hotels in Jakarta, I felt a kind of dejavu. Some eight years ago when the World Trade Center was demolished by terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, I saw live on TV the second plane crashing on one of the twin towers. I felt shivers in my spine remembering the two occasions I had given economic briefings in the Windows on the World Restaurant on top of the WTC. Seeing pictures of the results of the blasts in the two Jakarta hotels, I felt history repeating
itself. Over the last year or so, I had given economic briefings and joined CEO breakfast forums several times in both the Ritz Carlton and Marriott in Jakarta. I actually had breakfast several times in the Air Langga Restaurant in which several people died during the bombing of July 17, 2009.

I never thought even for a moment of canceling the business trip to Jakarta. I was convinced that Indonesia would quickly recover from the bad publicity occasioned by these dastardly acts of some terrorists. Providentially, in the Singapore Air Lines flight I took to Indonesia, I read an eyewitness account of the bombings in The Straits Times of July 18, 2009. A certain Erik Stern, who was having breakfast at the Air Langga restaurant in Ritz Carlton at the time the second bomb exploded described his harrowing experience. I immediately identified with his very positive attitude towards Indonesia. At the conclusion of his account, he famously remarked: "My second day here – may have been overwhelming but I will definitely come back for my 41st visit to the city, and especially to Ritz-Carlton. I love the staff here. I urge everyone not to discriminate against Jakarta because those who will lose are those who really lost today, the people of Jakarta."

Echoing the words of Mr. Stern I will go back to Jakarta many more times in the future, even daring to stay at the Ritz Carlton, because Indonesia under the leadership of President Yudhoyono (called SBY by Indonesians) has put together some outstanding economic and political reforms that will make sustainable economic development possible in the coming twenty years. No terrorist bombings can derail the strong economic growth in the most populous Muslim country in the world. As I went around in heavy traffic in both Jakarta and Surabaya, visiting some of the shopping complexes in both cities, I reconfirmed what I had seen in previous visits: That the huge domestic market of close to 250 million consumers can enable a reasonably well-run country like Indonesia to attain a GDP growth of 6 or more percent annually. Already, Indonesia has demonstrated during this ongoing global economic crisis that it should be grouped together with such emerging markets such as China, India, and Vietnam that have managed to grow at anywhere from 4 to 8 percent while the tiger economies of the past in the region, such as Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, are experiencing precipitous declines in their GDPs.

Just a day before the bombings, Bloomberg came out with a column of William Pesek reporting on the new acronym that may take the place of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), which was coined by Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs eight years ago. Nicholas Cashmore, Jakarta-based CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets economist, has contributed a new phrase to describe the emerging markets that are taking the lead as the world emerges from the worst global recession since the Second World War. Brazil and Russia have not avoided large declines in their GDPs this year. Indonesia's growth of at least 5 percent this year may warrant its being grouped with China and India into what Cashmore calls "Chindonesia." As Pesek remarked, there is a compelling logic to expand the "Chindia" concept to the Southeast Asian giant, Indonesia. The three countries together generated economic activity equal to 44 percent of the US economy. As Cashmore computed, "Chindonesia" will have a total GDP that will surpass $10 trillion by 2020, even assuming modest growth rates of just 5 to 6 percent.

Indonesia is a perfect example of the emerging markets that will dominate the global economy in the coming twenty years. It has a large and young population, an increasingly educated labor force, vast natural resources, and an enlightened leadership under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whose creditable performance in his first term won for him a resounding victory of about 60 percent in the recent elections. Newsweek in its July 20, 2009 issue had very positive words for President SBY: "When he first took office five years ago, violent separatists threatened Indonesia's integrity, homegrown terrorists sowed chaos, piracy thrived in the Strait of Malacca, and the economy was still reeling from the devastating 1998 Asian crisis. Today, Indonesia is the most vibrant and stable democracy in the region and one of the few economies predicted to grow by more than 4 percent in 2009."

As a citizen of a country still struggling to fight corruption at the highest levels of Government, I am impressed with the accomplishments of SBY in cleaning up what used to be one of the most corrupt governments in the world as regularly tracked by Transparency International. The President, especially with the help of his Minister of Finance, was able to successfully prosecute some very high officials, including the father of his son-in-law. In the many private briefings and CEO forums in which I have participated, I have heard nothing but praises for the improving governance under President SBY. Indonesian entrepreneurs and corporate executives are the ones most bullish about the future of the economy, especially in such sectors as real estate, mining, infrastructure, consumer products, telecommunications, energy, finance, education and information technology.

Indonesia is very well positioned in two possible growth triangles that can evolve among the emerging markets of Asia. First, there is Chindonesia. These three countries will add more than 170 million people to their work forces over the next decade in contrast with the declining populations of the European Union, Japan and Russia. The other growth triangle to which Indonesia can belong is what Jesus Zulueta of Asia Select, an executive search firm operating in Southeast Asia, calls the V.I.P. of the ASEAN – Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. These three countries have more than 400 million consumers among themselves and are very rich in natural resources. They can be the food basket for resource-poor countries like China and its Northeast Asian neighbors of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. All three VIP countries are also growing from levels of per capita incomes of about US$3,000 in purchasing power terms to about $5,000 in the next twenty years. This is the range of per capita income at which demand for consumer goods and services grow exponentially at double-digit rates. As Pesek remarked: "Talk about a no-brainer for investors." Despite some turbulence that is inevitable in a fledgling democracy, I am sure that it will business as usual in Indonesia for those who want to take advantage of the many investment opportunities in this young and populous Archipelago of 14,000 islands. For comments, my email address is bvillegas@uap.edu.ph.