National debt kept at 57.6% of GDP

By LEE C. CHIPONGIAN
October 7, 2009, 6:45pm

Finance Secretary Margarito B. Teves said the government is keeping its national debt estimate of 57.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for this year but raised its 2010 debt ceiling to 56.9 percent of GDP or P4.746 trillion from an earlier target of 55.8 percent.

Teves said next year’s financing requirements will pull debt stock higher but they expect the country’s outstanding obligations to start dropping after 2010. “Fiscal adjustment is needed after 2010 to put debt back on declining trajectory,” he said. “For the medium-term, we hope to achieve fiscal consolidation by 2013.”

The government is also hoping that the national debt vis-á-vis the GDP will fall below 50 percent to 46.1 percent by 2013. This is a year later than what was originally programmed, that debt will declined to 48.5 percent of GDP by 2012.

But, Teves said the 2010 fiscal program will “bring back” the Philippines to the “path of fiscal consolidation.”

Next year’s budget deficit is expected to drop to 2.8 percent of GDP from 3.2 percent in 2009.

This is P233.4 billion in nominal terms from P250 billion this year. The proposed total revenue program for 2010 amounts to P1.3 trillion or 7.8 percent higher than 2009.

Of the total revenues, tax revenues would amount to P1.2 trillion, increasing by P113.1 billion or 10.4 percent compared to this year’s program.

“The increase in tax revenues hinges on a more buoyant outlook for economic growth, combined with higher imports, as different sectors start to recover,” said Teves.

Next year’s expenditures are expected to hit P1.6 trillion, 5.4 percent higher compared to what will be spent this year.

As of end-August, the government paid debt service of P487.73 billion. Total interest payments amounted to P203.44 billion while principal dues totaled P284.3 billion. August’s interest payments of P19.74 billion were lower compared to July’s P38.96 billion.