While rains come a-plenty in Luzon and some areas in western Mindanao, some provinces in the south are suffering below normal rainfall for two consecutive months, indicating the continuing development of a weak El Niño in the southern part of the Philippines.

“El Niño,” Spanish word for “The Child” is a weather phenomenon associated with the unusual warming in the Equatorial Pacific which usually brings below normal rainfall.

Government’s weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said Samar province and most areas of northern and southern Mindanao have been experiencing below normal rainfall condition lately.

Below normal rainfall condition has also been observed over the provinces of Capiz and Misamis Oriental for two consecutive months now, PAGASA said.

PAGASA’s El Niño Advisory No. 2 issued last Oct. 7, 2009 said “weak” El Niño episode continues to persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean noting that Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was at least 1.0° Celcius above-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

PAGASA said “based on the latest observations and international forecast models, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the first quarter of 2010.”

For October, PAGASA said rainfall is forecast to be below normal in most parts of northern and central Luzon, western Visayas, Palawan, and some portions of southern Mindanao.

“Southern Luzon, Bicol region including Metro Manila will likely have near normal to above normal rainfall conditions. The rest of the country is expected to experience near normal rainfall conditions,” the government’s weather bureau said.

The unusual warming of sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific was noted by PAGASA as early as June this year.

“Since early May, weaker than average low level equatorial easterly winds have persisted across most of the equatorial Pacific. These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific,” PAGASA said.

Nathaniel Cruz, spokesperson of PAGASA, earlier warned of the possibility of a drought because of “too much” rainfall that some parts of the country have experienced in recent weeks.

“Harinawa huwag namang mangyari pero dahil sa mga sunod-sunod na pag-uulan, baka sa susunod naman na mga araw ay wala namang ulan. Kung ngayon ay pagbaha baka sa susunod naman ay tagtuyot,” Cruz said.

In the height of tropical storm “Ondoy” last Sept. 26, Metro Manila experienced the worst flooding ever recorded in history with the amount of rainfall dumped surpassing the 1967 record and the month's average.

“Ondoy” brought heavy rains with 455 mm. of 24-hour rain recorded at PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City, that exceeded the normal rainfall for the month of September.

Typhoon “Pepeng,” followed suit and caused widespread flooding in northern Luzon provinces.

“Magkakaroon ng pag-ulan pero mas mahina kaysa sa dati. Uulan pero hindi kasing dami ng dati,” Cruz explained of the effect of the “El Niño phenomenon.