US President Barack Obama speaks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington on October 13, 2009 after the Senate Finance Committee voted to approve health insurance reform legislation.(SAUL LOEB/AFP)

WASHINGTON, October 13, 2009 (AFP) - A year after President Barack Obama's election, all eyes are on two governors' races that could prove a bellwether for his Democratic party in a period marked by economic crises and legislative gambles.

Elections for the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey next month come halfway between Obama's White House triumph and the crucial 2010 midterms -- when the president's party historically has tended to lose seats.

Next year, a third of the 100-seat Senate, over two-thirds of governor mansions and the entire US House of Representatives are put up for a vote.

But in 2009, jostling electioneers in both parties are focused solely on Virginia and New Jersey in a bid to shape the lay of US political landscape in anticipation of next year's effort.

Republicans hope to capitalize on the sour economic times, poor job growth under Obama, and controversy whipped up by Democratic efforts to reform health care.

"If the Republicans win both of them they will certainly claim it's a sign that (they) are back," Eric Davis, a political scientist at Middlebury College in Vermont, told AFP.

A desirable swing state, Virginia remains the more prized of the two for being a clearer indicator of attitudes to Democratic control in neighboring Washington.

Having voted in 2008 for a left-leaning president for the first time in 44 years, the state is currently very "sensitive to shifts in public opinion," according to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

New Jersey may be a tighter race still, with survey results Tuesday showing incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, a Democrat, in a statistical dead heat with opponent Chris Christie -- down from a nine-point lead for the Republican in September.

But with the state's traditional support for Democrats, it will almost certainly remain Obama-leaning by 2012.

To the south in Virginia the field is wide open, as conservative Bob McDonnell pulls ahead with a nine-point lead over Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds a month before of election day, according to the most recent Washington Post poll.

"Bad times are depressing Democratic turnout and energizing GOP turnout," Sabato told AFP.

To shape media perception and the political ground into 2010, Democrats need at least to pull out a win in New Jersey to muddle the storyline, he said.

If the Democrats lose in both states, he said, "the White House will be on the defensive with the pundits and in the court of public opinion."

Davis said there is danger in overinterpreting the results as a clear harbinger of public attitudes toward Obama and his ambitious agenda. But the turnout alone will carry a message that could heighten Democratic fears for 2010, he said.

If Obama's base supporters, African Americans and young people, "don't turn out in large numbers, that's going to be a worrisome sign for Democrats, because Obama is not on the ballot next year either," Davis said.

The question in 2010 will then be, Davis said, "Can the Democratic House and Senate candidates turn out those two constituencies that were such a big part of the Democratic victory (in 2008)?"

Looking from the other direction, Republican victories in both states "would be a huge momentum boost for Republicans and a warning shot across the bow" for Democrats in Congress, according to GOP pollster Whit Ayres.

"A Republican victory in either or both of those states is going to send a clear signal that independent (voters) are back deciding with Republicans over Democrats," he said.

"That means there's going to be a lot of Republican victories in 2010," he added.

If so, conservative Democrats fearing similar rejection for having sided with the White House could be pushed to vote more on the right -- with devastating implications for Obama's legislative hopes, notably on health care.

Deeds himself cited Obama's efforts to combat the economic crisis and the tense showdown over health care reform as directly affecting his chances on November 3.

"Frankly, a lot of what's going on in Washington has made it very tough," he told a "Battleground Virginia" election forum earlier this month.

"We had a very tough August because people were just uncomfortable with the spending; they were uncomfortable with a lot of what was going on," Deeds complained, referring to raucous public meetings where conservatives vented anger over Obama's agenda.