Noynoy surges in SWS survey

By ELLALYN B. DE VERA
October 14, 2009, 5:22pm

Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III has taken over the top spot in the Filipinos’ preferred successors to President Arroyo in 2010, garnering an overwhelming 60 percent nod among the electorate, the third quarter Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey results showed.

The SWS survey on the voters’ top three choices to best succeed Mrs. Arroyo used to be dominated by Senator Manuel Villar Jr. in the two preceding survey rounds in May and June this year. Villar dropped to a distant second in the latest opinion poll.

Vice President Noli de Castro, who consistently topped the same survey in seven earlier polls from September 2007 to February 2009, has dropped out of the top three in the latest SWS survey.

In the nationwide survey fielded over Sept. 18 to 21 among 1,800 respondents, 60 percent mentioned Aquino’s name as their top bet in the 2010 presidential elections.

SWS asked the respondents to answer the question, “Under the present Constitution, the term of President Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed President Arroyo as President?”

The respondents were requested to give three names of their choice, without any list provided by SWS.

For the first time, the name of Aquino was mentioned in the September 2009 survey. The senator declared his intention to run for president only that same month, and was never considered a contender prior to his declaration.

SWS said the question wording has been exactly the same in the 10 previous surveys since September 2007.

The second most popular choice was Villar with 37 percent, followed by former President Joseph Estrada at 18 percent.

Villar topped the same survey in May and June this year with 29 percent and 33 percent respectively.

Senator Francis Escudero came fourth in the latest survey with 15 percent, and Senator Mar Roxas received 12 percent for fifth place. Roxas has since agreed to be Aquino's running mate and has formally abandoned his presidential bid.

Othe presidential hopefuls who were mentioned in the survey were De Castro with 8 percent, Senator Loren Legarda with 5 percent, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro (4 percent), Senator Panfilo Lacson (2 percent), and Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay (2 percent).

Meanwhile, Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chairman Bayani Fernando and Jesus is Lord movement evangelist Eddie Villanueva got one percent each.

The survey found six percent who could not give an answer, while 4 percent had no one to recommend.

SWS used face-to-face interviews of 1,800 adults. The survey has a margin of error of -+2.3 percent.

the surveys of September and December 2007, March and June 2008, and Februaury 2009 had sample sizes of 1,200 adults, with error margins of -+3 percent.

The September 2008, December 2008,a nd June 2009 surveys had sample sizes of 1,500 adults, for error margins of -+2.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the May 2009 survey had a sample size of 7,000 registered voters, for an error margin of -+1.2 percent.