Aside from strong typhoons and floods, Filipinos should prepare for earthquakes, the head of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) warned on Wednesday.

At the resumption of the Senate climate change committee hearing, Phivolcs director Renato Solidum Jr. underscored the need for earthquake preparedness as he raised the probability of a strong earthquake hitting Metro Manila and certain provinces in Northern and Central Luzon.

“There’s no fault activity now. It’s locked. It’s not moving but it’s classified as active because it moved before," Solidum told the committee chaired by Senator Loren Legarda.

Citing a study called the “Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction” conducted by Phivolcs, Solidum said that a 7.2 magnitude earthquake could devastate 40 percent of residential areas and 14 percent of high rise buildings in Metro Manila.

Solidum cited the Marikina fault line, now known as the Valley Point System, which runs from Sierra Madre to Sta. Rosa, Laguna.

He said a fault is classified active when it moved within the last 10,000 years.

The line starts from the Sierra Madre and runs through Bulacan, Rodriguez, Rizal, Quezon City, the eastern side of Metro Manila including Pasig, Taguig, Muntinlupa, San Pedro, and Sta. Rosa in Laguna and ends in Carmona Cavite.

“This is the length (of the valley fault line) but I don’t think the length will move because segmented iyan so the scenario of a magnitude 7.2 would be a scenario where central and northern segment will move,” he said

“It is locked now so the probability of having it moved now is close to zero. But of course we need to prepare,” he said.

According to Solidum, historical and geological records show that the Marikina fault line had moved four times within the past 1,400 years with an interval of 200, 400, and 600 years.

“The last movement, we think was 200 years ago. So if we use the lower interval there’s a possibility of a strong quake. But it’s not going to be soon as we’re monitoring the fault. It’s locked,” he said.

The Phivolcs chief said the reason why they are trying to promote the use of scenario of a massive earthquake is to alert the public and ensure disaster reduction.

“Hindi iyan kasi katulad ng bagyo na (kapag) darating (sasabihin mo lang) alis kayo diyan. Ang lindol hindi mo nape-predict,” Solidum said.

He said the Phivolcs study had at least 18 earthquake scenarios in which the public should prepare for but there are two worst case scenarios:

An earthquake on land, which would make the western side of the valley fault system moving and, the maximum credible earthquake which is “strong and most likely.”

As some parts of the globe are now experiencing earthquakes, there is a ‘’need to prepare,’’ he said.

Legarda said that ‘’earthquake don’t kill, unsafe structures do.’’

Japanese structural engineers have long been known to have built earthquake-resistant buildings and other structures, she said.

Failure of public buildings and other structures such as bridges, hospitals and schools to resist the force of earthquakes would most likely to be traced to corruption in the implementation of structurally-sound designed structures, she said.