APEC leaders eye stimulus exit plan

By COSTAS PARIS and P.R. VENKAT
November 7, 2009, 2:25pm

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones) – Pacific Rim leaders are walking a policy tightrope ahead of their annual summit, worrying that their economies remain vulnerable after the global downturn but starting to discuss unwinding their massive economic-stimulus policies.

Some members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum say the global flood of economic stimulus "can't go on forever and that there should at least be a timeframe for withdrawals," an APEC delegate told Dow Jones Newswires Friday. "But for now, fear of a relapse remains paramount."

APEC presidents and prime ministers say in a draft statement for their gathering, which begins Sunday in Singapore, that their "robust policy responses" have aided the economic turnaround but that "the economic recovery is not yet on a solid footing."

"We will maintain our economic stimulus policies until a durable economic recovery is secured," according to the draft statement seen by Dow Jones.

APEC finance ministers, in a draft of their own statement, say that "careful planning and timing withdrawal of extraordinary stimulus measures will help to avoid a double-dip recession," according to two people who have read the ministers' statement.

There is a clear understanding, especially among Asian exporting countries, that recovery "will be slow and painful" until their primary export markets in the US and Europe are back to strength, the delegate said.

The central bank in APEC member Australia – which has raised interest rates twice in the past two months and signaled it intends to tighten further – remains the exception among Asia-Pacific countries, the delegate said.

"There will be no rush to tighten monetary policy," he said. "They are all looking to the Fed for direction."

The Federal Reserve kept it key policy rate near zero Wednesday and reiterated that it expects to keep rates "exceptionally" low for an "extended period," although the central bank said the US economy is improving.

Leaders of the 21-member APEC, representing some 54% of the world economy, urge negotiators to complete the stalled Doha round of global trade talks in 2010, according to the draft of the statement to be issued at the end of the summit Nov. 15.

"We are concerned that the high-level political commitment to concluding the Doha Round has yet to be translated into substantive progress in the negotiations," the draft says. The leaders say they are ready to "exercise all possible flexibility" to accelerate the talks and instruct their ministers to identify specific areas where APEC can help.

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