Noynoy holds steady lead in Pulse Asia poll

By ELLALYN B. DE VERA
November 16, 2009, 5:57pm

Liberal Par ty president ial standard bearer Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III leads the newest voters’ preference survey for next year’s elections by a “big margin,” the latest Pulse Asia survey polls showed Monday.

of 44 percent of Filipinos, followedIn the nationwide survey conducted from Oct. 22 to 30 among 1,800 respondents, Aquino got the support distantly by Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. with 19 percent.

The other perceived presidential hopefuls who figured in the survey are Sen. Francis “Chiz”Escudero with 13 percent and former President Joseph Estrada with 11 percent.

The others included in the presidential survey with voter preferences of a maximum 4 percent include VicePresident Noli de Castro (4 percent), former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro (2 percent), Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani Fernando (1 percent), and spiritual leader Eduardo Villanueva (1 percent).

Meanwhile, less than one in 10 or only four percent of Filipino voters donot have a favored presidential candidate at the moment.

With regard to socio-economic and regional preferences, Aquino enjoys majority of voter preferences in the best-off classes ABC (51 percent) and the Visayas (53 percent).

Likewise, big percentages in the rest of Luzon and Mindanao (both at 41 percent) and classes D and E (both at 44 percent), as well as a near majority of Metro Manila residents (47 percent) would likely vote for Aquino as the next President in 2010.

Pulse Asia said the most often cited reason in expressing a voting preference for a possible presidential candidate is Aquino's clean public record or “not being corrupt.”

About two in 10 Filipinos or 21.2 percent of voters are electing a particular presidential candidate because he or she is not corrupt, a reason cited by fewer respondents in the Pulse Asia surveys last May and August.

The poll body noted that other personalities who used to be in the lead experienced a decline in their voter preferences.

Between last August and October, the biggest drop in electoral support is recorded by De Castro with a minus 12 percentage points.

The voter preferences of Villar and Estrada also declined during the period with minus 6 and minus 8 percentage points, respectively.

As also shown in the survey, Sen.r Manuel”Maer” Roxas III emerged as the favored vice presidential bet for the May 2010 elections in the October survey.

Almost four in 10 Filipinos or 37 percent said they would vote for Roxas as vice president if the May 2010 elections were held Tuesday.

Roxas leads the other vice-presidential hopefuls in several geographic areas and socio-economic classes (32 percent to 49 percent).

He is followed by Sen. Loren Legarda with 23 percent. Meanwhile, Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay and De Castro garnered 13 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

Other probable vice presidential bets score with voter preferences of 4 percent or less include Sen. Jose “ Jinggoy” Estrada (4 percent), Sen.r Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. (4 percent), Fernando (1 percent),

Sen. Richard Gordon (1 percent), Local Government Secretary Ricardo Puno (1 percent), and Finance Secretary Margarito Teves (0.1 percent).

Meanwhile, only 4 percent of Filipinos are not inclined to support any vice presidential candidate at the moment.

In the balance Luzon and Mindanao, Roxas’ lead over Legarda (32 YAPpercent versus 25 percent, and 33 percent versus 28 percent, respectively) is marginal and not a significant lead.

Pulse Asia explained that the two vice presidential hopefuls could have nearly the same level of voter preferences in these two areas.

The same observation could also be made regarding their comparative voter preferences among the poorest class E (33 percent versus 25 percent).

With regard to the senatorial race, the survey found that 14 out of 66 individuals have a statistical chance of winning, with Sen.r Jinggoy Estrada leading the list of probable winners.

Senator Estrada got 46.7 percent, which translates to a statistical ranking of first to second places.

He is closely followed by Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago (42.4 percent).

Other senatorial materials in the line up were former Senate President Franklin Drilon (38.6 percent), Senators Pia Cayetano (37.2 percent), Revilla Jr. (36.6 percent);, Binay (36.6 percent), and Roxas (36.3 percent).

Also in the list are Senator Jamby Madrigal (31.6 percent), lawyer Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III (31.4 percent), former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director-General Ralph Recto (30.6 percent), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (28.5 percent), and Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) chairperson Vicente Sotto III (28.2 percent).

Completing the list of probable winners are television host Willie Revillame (27.4 percent) and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (26.6 percent).

Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2 percent error margin on the 95 percent confidence level.