This 15th Conference of Parties (COP15), the successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which ends today, is described as the most important conference of the decade with delegates from 192 countries and some 115 heads of state, including President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

Until three days ago, the general mood at the summit appeared to be anything but optimistic. We do not know as yet what the outcome will be, but what is certain is that the presence of US President Barack Obama at the summit today is regarded as a key factor. An Ark was built on the National Mall, jokingly called the “Climate Plan B” – a statement to dramatize the need for a Real Deal. Earlier, the summit was marked with protests that called for radical measures, walkouts that caused temporary suspension of talks, the arrest of a high-profile climate change activist, and fasting by thousands of young people. There was a poetic statement from Archbishop Desmond Tutu, who, like New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, showed hope amidst prevailing pessimism from the majority. Tutu told delegates: “We marched in Berlin, and the wall fell; We marched for South Africa, and apartheid fell; We march at Copenhagen, and we will get a Real Deal.” Krugman’s “affordable truth” is that cutting greenhouse gas emissions is affordable and essential because financial incentives work.

Of the four key issues – greenhouse gas emissions, climate aid for poorer nations, monitoring of pledges, and forest issues – it looks like the last one appears to be nearing a successful resolution. REDO – Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation – would pay poor countries to protect their forests. The earlier draft included no money and no benchmarks but at this time of writing, it looks like the delegates are nearing a deal on financing either by the richer nations’ taxpayers or by a carbon-trading mechanism where each country would have an emissions ceiling where the remainder can be sold to over-polluters. Two Filipinos were reported to have played important roles in the REDO negotiations – Dean Tony La Vina of the Ateneo School of Government who is lead negotiator, and Vicky Corpuz, chair of the UN’s Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues. An Igorot, and a long-term activist, she played a key role in generating consensus.

The three other issues remain contentious. Industrialized nations are pressured to cut back even more on CO2 emissions by 40 percent or more by 2020. China and India are likewise under pressure to rein in their emission growth. On aid for poorer nations, a “prompt start” package of 10 billion dollars a year for 3 years is being discussed. But developing nations want to be assured of firm commitments as it would take much more – hundreds of millions of dollars each year to finance a program that would have impact. On the monitoring of pledges, developed nations want some international verification of emissions actions by developing countries. But  China and India are resisting what they consider an intrusion into their sovereignty. A legal framework will be needed for now in place of a more binding treaty which is expected to be signed in the next 12 months.

COP15 is anchored on the United Nations Framework on Climate Change that places heaviest burden for fighting climate change on industrialized countries since they are the source of most past and current greenhouse gas emissions. The main concern of developing nations is what while they are willing to contribute to mitigation initiatives, they fear that they will be forced into a deal which will harm their ability to grow economically and that it may slow down their efforts to fight poverty. They are the most vulnerable and an increase in their emission level may make it impossible for them to stay under a two-degree temperature rise under a business as usual scenario the synergy. We anticipate that a good deal will be arrived at, especially at this time of transition.

Needless to say, the requirements of social and economic transformation depend very much on climate change and related issues of global change. My e-mail is florangel.braid@gmail.com