After economic storm, Asia faces 2010 political risks

ANALYSIS
December 26, 2009, 5:05pm

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Investors who kept faith in Asia as the world teetered on the brink of financial meltdown a year ago have been richly rewarded -- the region’s markets rode out the storm in spectacular style and posted stunning gains.

The economic outlook for 2010 appears far sunnier. But with frothy markets betting on a smooth return to business as usual, the danger of a sudden correction hangs over Asia, unless the region can steer its way past some treacherous political risks.

The two most important issues for the world economy in the coming year are political -- the pivotal relationship between the United States and China, and the timing and coordination of exit strategies from the stimulus measures that kept disaster at bay.

Investors in Asia also need to be wary of political shocks that could suddenly overturn the region’s risk profile. Upheaval in North Korea, where there are persistent doubts about the health of leader Kim Jong-il and where the economy is going from bad to worse, could cause profound regional instability. And the risk of a confrontation between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, perhaps sparked by another militant atrocity in India, is ticking upwards again.

‘’A multitude of political, security and operational risks converge in Asia,’’ said Michael Denison, research director at London-based Control Risks consultancy. ‘’The causes of the global recession are now well understood. The contours of the recovery, by contrast, are far from clear.’’

The United States and China are already by far the two most important countries in terms of political clout. And in 2010 China is set to overtake Japan as the second-largest economy. The ‘’G2’’ relationship is key to shaping our destiny not just in the coming year or coming decade, but through the 21st century.