The inter-agency Development Budget Coordinating Committee (DBCC) expects imports to increase as much as 15 percent this year from a previous forecast of only 13 percent but exports are still seen to grow by seven to nine percent.

The DBCC as of December 14 has kept all previous assumptions such as foreign exchange and inflation but tweaked interest rates and Dubai crude assumptions.

Sources from the DBCC said the peso-dollar assumptions for this year is P46 to P49 while interest rates were readjusted higher to four to six percent for 91-day Treasury bills and one to three percent for LIBOR 6-months.

The updated Dubai crude or oil price expectations have been readjusted this year to $70 to $90 per barrel from previous assumptions of $60 to $80.

Finance Secretary Margarito B. Teves said the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast of 2.6 percent to 3.6 percent has been retained, while the budget deficit is still the estimated high of P293 billion, higher than original program of P233 billion.

The DBCC also pegged the budget deficit for 2009 at P290 billion, based on the latest numbers and as discussed by the economic managers during their last meeting last Thursday.

DBCC sources said the government wanted to keep the P282-billion internal target but the shortfalls in revenue collections, which amounted to P107 billion, would not allow it.

As of November, the budget deficit was P272.5 billion. The full-year and December fiscals will be reported on the third week of February.

Teves said earlier that they would like to cap the number at P300 billion, which was P50 billion over the original program for the year.

In the first 11 months of 2009, revenue shortfalls reached P107.3 billion. There will be no additional funds from privatization. Last year, the government sold only P1 billion worth of state assets compared to 2008’s P31 billion and 2007s P92 billion.

For this year, the DoF is also adjusting the fiscal program due to increase in spending. “We’re making adjustments to address urgent needs (for the government),” said Teves.