The United Opposition (UNO) Wednesday warned Malacañang about a looming “First Quarter Storm” of senior citizens upset over President Arroyo’s cold reception to the bill exempting the elderly from the expanded value-added tax (E-VAT).

UNO president and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay said the Palace should brace for a 20th century First Quarter Storm (FQS), referring to the series of demonstrations staged by student activists from January to March 1971 that rocked the Marcos administration, should President Arroyo ignore public clamor for the enactment of the Expanded Senior Citizens Act of 2010.

“Malacañang should not test the patience of senior citizens. One thing they should remember is that our seniors are very conscious of their rights, and do not have second thoughts about expressing their sentiments. Baka pag naubos ang pasensya nila, mag-FQS ang mga senior citizens,” Binay said.

Binay said the Palace is dangling the “fear factor of massive revenue loss” in a last-ditch bid to sway public opinion to the side of a presidential veto of the bill.

Saying that "facts and figures" do not support the Palace’s plan to torpedo the bill, Binay said the projected "minimal revenue loss" of the Congress-approved bill can be covered by plugging the annual P172 billion leak from smuggling.

The opposition leader claimed tax leakage form the collection of import duties and taxes was allegedly "already running at P172 billion annually” five years ago, which if partially plugged "could recoup the losses that VAT exemption to seniors would incur."

“This amount is more than what we collect from VAT, yet our government nitpicks on the crumbs we plan to give to our lolos and lolas while remaining indifferent to the rampant smuggling going around it," Binay further claimed.

The opposition leader pointed out that 60-year-olds and above constitute a mere six percent of the country’s 94.01 million population this year.

“Only six in every 100 Filipinos would qualify for exemption and the coverage is not across-the-board. This is a privilege to be extended to a tiny segment of the populace and will involve a narrow list of goods and services," he said.

Binay added that on a pro-rata computation, senior citizens, with their diminishing purchasing power are not major contributors to this segment. If the government factors in the fact that the proposed exemption covers less than two dozen items, "then the conclusion is that the revenue loss is minimal.”

“Yet, the government can see a revenue puncture the size of a pinprick when it should have long addressed the gaping hole caused by smuggling," he said.

Due to the restrictions in both the number of beneficiaries and exempted goods, Binay said the proposed Expanded Senior Citizens Act will apparently have a “negligible revenue impact but palpable social benefits.”