Inflation rate decelerates to 4.3% in January, surprises market forecasts
Inflation in the Philippines surprisingly decelerated in January on sluggish rises in the cost of food and construction materials, giving the central bank greater scope to keep policy rates low.
The National Statistics Office said Friday that January inflation was 4.3 percent on-year, a tad below December's 4.4 percent rise. The consumer price index, the country's main inflation barometer, was up 0.2 percent in monthly terms, vs December's monthly 0.6 percent rise.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel, also slowed to 3.0 percent in January, from 3.2 percent the previous month.
"We are pleased that some commodities exhibited lower-than-expected price run-up. We remain watchful of price signals and market developments in our constant monetary assessment," Deputy Governor Diwa Gunigundo said.
"Our monetary policy stance was also validated to be supportive of price stability while accommodating economic growth," he added.
While inflation gauges in neighboring countries have been coming in above expectations – leading many analysts to advance their rate-hike calls – the Philippine print came in below the 4.9 percent median forecast of 10 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and the central bank's projection of 4.5-5.4 percent. "This slower-than-expected inflation should allow the BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) to remain patient for a few months before raising their interest rate from the current 4.00 percent," said David Cohen, an economist with Action Economics.
Cohen expects the central bank to begin raising key policy rates by 25 basis points in June to contain inflation, reaching 4.75 percent by year-end. Most analysts expect the BSP to start hiking rates toward the second half of the year, after general elections in May.
Simon Wong, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank, said January's reading "suggests waning impact from the food supply disruption late last year, and should lessen pressure on the BSP to tighten in the near term."


